A modest proposal for reducing gas prices; The controversy over transgender athletes

Investors right now really do not want oil and gas companies to drill. That is by far the biggest reason why they are not drilling despite high oil prices. Every single regulation could be repealed and they still would not be any more inclined to drill. It is an understandable reluctance given that investors lost tons of money last decade by drilling for oil only to see prices fall in 2014. They are still scarred from that experience and do not want to repeat it. They are not confident that current prices will remain high should they start drilling again.

Lots of proposals have been put forth to deal with problem of high gas prices. Most of them are incredibly stupid. Examples of that include taxing windfall profits, gas tax holidays, giving rebates to drivers and trying to use more ethanol. Those things will do nothing or will raise the price even further. In their defense, they are only being proposed because most Americans are economically clueless. Most Americans think the president has control over gas prices. If that was the case, the price would next to nothing. Pre-school level logic would tell you that it makes no sense for the president to deliberately raise prices and hurt their approval rating and re-election chances, but clearly most people do not get that. To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, you work with the electorate you have, not the electorate you might want to have at a later time.

If getting more drilling going and getting it going fast is truly an emergency, there is a solution hiding in plain sight: nationalize the oil and gas industry! That solves the reluctant investor problem that markets are aiding and abetting. While private companies have to worry about losses, the federal government does not. They could buy every single rig in the country and begin drilling right away, prices be damned. As for labor shortage issues, that has an easy solution. Just offer insanely high pay to anyone who works on a rig, say, $250,000 a year plus the most lavish benefits possible. Even I might take that up that offer.

If nationalization sounds crazy, it would actually be very normal. Every single OPEC member does it that way. OPEC is a coalition of governments, not private companies. Oil and gas in most parts of the world is produced by governments. Even companies that are publicly traded like Saudi Aramco are dominated by governments as the majority shareholder. Other than the US, Canada and most of Europe, oil and gas is nationalized almost everywhere else.

How much would it cost the federal government to nationalize the entire oil and gas industry? I have no idea and who cares? It certainly would be much less than the amount spent on pandemic relief efforts and if it really is a matter of urgent national and economic security, why put a price tag on it? We can more than afford to do it.

What about corruption issues? Plenty of government run oil companies are bad and riddled with corruption, especially in Venezuela. That is a problem for another day. Sure, it could be really bad and odds are it will be, but are we not in an emergency? Is that really the biggest concern to have now? People are demanding immediate relief at the pump. The only way to do that is by nationalizing the oil and gas industry so profits are no longer a concern. The federal government could pump out oil and gas like there is no tomorrow. Prices would plunge at the pump, the world would turn to gold and all of our problems would be solved forever! Socialism for the win!

Yes, that was all a joke. No, I do not advocate for nationalizing the oil and gas industry. Although if they did offer $250,000 to work on a rig, I would seriously consider it, but still be very likely not to do it. Living in North Dakota or Montana during the winter is not something on my bucket list.

The point is there is no immediate relief for gas prices. Short-term, there is very little that can be done. Beyond that though there are plenty of things that can and should be done. One silver lining from the war in Ukraine is that Russia will no longer be an energy superpower in Europe and probably will be significantly weakened by that. Europe will remain heavily dependent on Russia for some time, but that may end sooner than many think. Certainly, by the end of the decade, that dependence should be reduced to very little, if anything. The good news is that is going to happen no matter what else happens with the war in Ukraine. Putin could pull all of his troops out of Ukraine and surrender, apologize for what he did and retire to one of the mansions he stole and Europe is still going to stop buying Russian oil and gas. As for the US, feel free to check out what I wrote two weeks ago for my thoughts on what should be done.

We are living through a major event in world history. The existing order in Europe and the world that has been the rule for the last three decades may well be unraveling. I have no idea what will come next, but I have to say I am worried a good bit. I do not want to exit from globalization and pull back on trade. I do want to reduce our reliance on China and want to see Russia pay for what it has done, but I worry things will go much further than that.

The pandemic has isolated the world like no event before and that trend seems to be, at a minimum, not reversing. A world that is more isolated is one that will be poorer and less prosperous. For all the shortcomings of the current order, it has seen more people rise from poverty than at any point in human history. There has never been a better time to be alive and that is no exaggeration.

I think trade is a good thing and do not want to see countries moving inwards towards protectionism. It is why I really do not like hearing the slogan “Buy American.” It sounds wonderful, but really it is nothing but protectionism that will make things cost more. Right now, the US needs to work with its allies against not just Russia but China, too. Moving away from trade is a great way to undermine that. We need to be trading with our allies now more than ever.

Abandoning the Trans Pacific Partnership in Asia in 2016 will go down as one of the biggest foreign policy blunders of the last decade. Trump officially killed it, but Hillary Clinton opposed it and so did Biden. To think it was killed for the promise of bringing back no longer existing manufacturing jobs to the US makes me want to jump off my balcony. Economic integration is a great thing for so many reasons, not the least of which is it is great for economies, especially in reducing prices, and a great deterrent to war. The more isolated countries are from each other, the more likely conflict will become, mark my words on that.

One thing the last month has really driven home is what truly matters. It is fun to argue over culture war battles and to be outraged over what some idiot on social media or cable news said. In the grand scheme of things, that stuff is too small to even be trivial. The possibility of the existing global order to break apart is a huge deal and something to worry about. The possibility of Russia using chemical or nuclear weapons against Ukraine is a huge deal and something to worry about. Needless to say, the possibility of the war in Ukraine expanding to NATO members, including the US, is definitely a huge deal and something to worry about. Arguments about wokeness and the like are amoeba in comparison. Remember that the next time you feel like getting upset about wokeness (for or against) and remember to never take seriously someone who thinks it is the most important thing going on.

Transgender athletes

This is not an issue I was hoping to write about in all honesty. I say that because the number of such athletes is so small that it is just not a very important issue right now, especially compared to what I just wrote about. Still, I think it is necessary to articulate my thoughts on the matter because it is not going to go away and will likely get more attention in the future. In short, I really do not know what the solution is. I know what the solution is not and that is legislation, at least not right now.

It is probably best for schools and/or leagues to sort it out themselves. There will likely be different responses in different places, i.e., some will allow transgender women to compete with women and others will not. There are many issues involving transgender people that are easy. Allowing transgender soldiers to serve openly in the military is a no-brainer with few tradeoffs. The same is true with extending protections afforded by the Civil Rights Act to transgender people, which was done in 2020 by the Supreme Court.

When it comes to sports, there are genuine tradeoffs. There really is a tension between trying to be fair on the one hand and inclusive on the other. I absolutely think we should be respectful of who people are and try to make them feel included. At the same time, there are major differences between men and women. That idea is controversial among the activist left, but among everyone else it is just stating 1 + 1 = 2. Transgender women are women, but they still have physical differences from biological women. That is a fact. This is not a black-and-white issue and is not comparable to segregated sports in the 1950s.

Maybe someday our culture will change to the point where we no longer care about gender or sex. Maybe someday we will decide that we all are non-binary. If that happens, it will be what it will be. But that is not where we are today and acting as if we are is a great way to sound, at best, like a space alien and otherwise to drive away a whole swath of people for no reason. I am a broken record on writing about how harmful much of the activist left can be and gender issues are one of the topics where they have really gone off course. Of all the efforts by some on the left to “cancel” people they do not like, the efforts against people like JK Rowling who simply say that there are differences between transgender and biological women are the most bizarre and the most needlessly alienating.  

Pro tip, which I will discuss in the next paragraphs, if you are arguing a position that is way out of the mainstream, i.e., there are no differences between men and women, you are going to have a very tough case to make. Maybe it is possible to succeed in making it, but that will take a hard and concerted effort. Responding to anyone who does not agree with your position by trying to get them “cancelled” is a guaranteed way to fail. It also begs the question of who is really being intolerant.

One way or another, the issue of transgender athletes and transgender issues in general will be worked out. I believe it will be in a tolerant manner just as the country has become accepting of gays. The good news is transgender people are already afforded substantial protections under the law and I certainly hope that continues. At the same time, not every issue is black-and-white and the tendency of some on the left to take maximally hardline positions risks undermining the causes they claim to believe in.

While I believe public opinion will continue to move in favor of transgender people, it is not there yet on everything. Those on the left who want everyone to get there will have to make the case for it. Calling anyone who does not agree 100% a bigot and language policing are great ways to not do that. I do not want there to be a backlash against transgender people and especially not one that puts in charge people who undermine all kinds of other important causes.

When cultures change, they change because of persuasion, at least in democracies. That persuasion comes from advocates and others successfully making their case to the public. That is what happened with getting women the right to vote, ending segregation and legalizing gay marriage. Where persuasion does not come from is from elected officials and candidates for office taking bold stances in defiance of public opinion. Those are the last people to get on board. By the time they are advocating for something, public opinion has already shifted. That is what happened with gay marriage and transgender issues will probably be no different.

That is something activists need to understand when they demand that politicians take positions that are far out of the mainstream. Cultures in democracies do not change that way and never have. They change because those pushing for change successfully made their case from the bottom up. That does not happen overnight and never happens without resistance. Like gay marriage was when pushing for it first became a cause, transgender issues are very new to most people. It is natural for many people to react negatively to something that is new. That does not mean they are bigots. It just means that they need to be convinced that it is okay and does not threaten them. That will take time some, but it can and must be done.