Build Back Better is in trouble. Don't blame Joe Manchin
Yesterday, Joe Manchin announced that he will not support Build Back Better (BBB) as it is currently written. Contrary to what some might think, BBB is not dead, but it will have to be adjusted significantly from what the House passed. That is actually a good thing because BBB needs to focus on a few things, do them well and fund them on a permanent basis. All Joe Manchin did was make official what he had long said was the case.
The left is up in arms against Joe Manchin, but he has been consistent from the start. He has made it clear that things need to be funded on a permanent basis and that frontloading things only to have them expire a few years later is just a gimmick to hide the bill’s true cost. He’s right on both counts. I wish he would not have limited BBB, but he has. Still, there are an immense number of things that can be done with $1.7-1.8 trillion.
The fault with BBB being stuck is not with Joe Manchin. It is with Biden. For months now, Joe Manchin has clearly stated what he wants and what he will support. Rather than listen to him, Biden has ignored him and sided with the more left-wing parts of his party. The main problem with that group is not that they are proposing bad ideas (although some of the ideas are bad), it is their strategy. The more left-wing parts want to fund every single wish list of theirs on a temporary basis. Their (delusional) belief is that everything will prove so popular that Republicans will be forced to not allow it to expire.
I’m sorry, but this is almost QAnon-level fantasy. It is one thing to have to take an affirmative act to repeal something. It is quite another to do nothing and let it expire. The former is why Republicans were unable to get rid of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and why they haven't rolled back the safety net in any significant way. Had the ACA or any other program been funded temporarily they would probably not be around anymore.
The belief among the left that they have any leverage over Joe Manchin seriously makes me question their sanity. He comes from a blood red state. He is literally the only Democrat who can win in West Virginia. Democrats only have 50 Senators and can’t lose a single one of them. Distancing himself from the national party works to his advantage. It takes an incredibly low level of political intelligence to think that he can be pushed around by anyone, let alone AOC.
Despite that obvious fact, Biden and other Democrats like Chuck Schumer have sided with the left. They have deluded themselves into thinking that they can get Joe Manchin to move towards them. He has made clear for months where he stands and is not going to budge. He has no reason to. Still, Biden and Democrats have chosen to dig their heads in the sand.
The good news is something substantial can still pass. Supposedly, Joe Manchin offered Biden a deal recently that included massive sums for climate change, pre-k and the ACA. It did not include the child tax credit, which was the sticking point. I love the child tax credit that was enacted earlier this year and want nothing more than to extend it permanently. However, the deal offered by Joe Manchin is amazing. I care very deeply about climate change and worry that this is the last time we can do something major on it for a few years at least. Every day not doing something about it is a day we can never get back. I like the ACA and have wanted to see its reach expanded for years and Joe Manchin might just be offering a way to do that. I would take the deal in a heartbeat and any elected Democrat who would not should find another line of work.
If Biden and other Democrats reject an offer like that because it does not have the child tax credit, they all need to resign (see the cartoon below). This is such an incredible opportunity to do so much good for so many things and people. If Biden can’t bring himself to accept it, I have to question how committed he really is to climate change, which he invokes ad nauseam. The same is true with the left. If they really think it is the existential threat they say it is, they should be willing to take that deal even if it does not have everything they want.
Politics is supposed to be about improving lives, not feeling righteous and pure. Take the deal, Biden and Democrats, and get off your high horse. You have an opportunity to do a ton of good things. Don’t pass it up because it doesn’t have everything in the world.
I have not been this dismayed at congressional Democrats in a long time. They are looking a gift horse in the mouth. It is absolutely mind boggling that a Senator from a blood red state is agreeing to spend up to $1.8 trillion and Biden and other Democrats are responding with anything short of a resounding yes. Never in 1.8 trillion years would a proposal like that have been on the table the last time Democrats were in charge. If BBB does not pass, it will not be Joe Manchin’s fault. It will be on the Democratic leadership and especially Biden.
One of the things I have always liked about Biden is that he is not part of the left and is not on Twitter. He is left-of-center, but not left and not “extremely online,” in sharp contrast with the likes of Elizabeth Warren and the squad. He is a pragmatist and has long been a dealmaker, which he just did on infrastructure. It is on him to get this done and is 100% within his control. Joe Manchin is negotiating in good faith and wants a deal. It would make no sense for him to negotiate like he has been for months only to just say no to any deal. The burden is on Biden to close it.
The onus is on Biden to get it done
From the beginning of the efforts to pass BBB, the biggest problem has been the refusal by Democrats to prioritize things. If they had all the money in the world to spend, then they would not need to do that, but they don’t. By trying to pass every last thing on their wish list, they are risking half-assing all of it only to see it all expire in a few years. If that were to happen, it would not really be any different from passing nothing at all.
Compounding the problem of trying to stuff everything into one package with limited money is that some of the programs themselves are horribly designed. The proposal for childcare, for example, is horribly flawed and risks raising costs for many parents. It is a proposal not ready for primetime and should not be passed. I am glad Joe Manchin opposes it. The proposal for pre-k is probably not going to work either. It relies on states to cough up a good chunk of the money and many states, even blue states, are already saying they will not take part in it or are hesitant. A program that is temporarily funded and only the bluest states take part in is guaranteed to be allowed to expire.
Biden and Democrats have to settle on a few things and do them well. The offer Joe Manchin allegedly proposed should be taken immediately. Only Biden can do that. Doing that is the only way BBB will get passed, but prioritizing things means upsetting some interest groups. Biden is the president and it is his job to lead. He has to be willing to say what is going to get included, but so far he has not been willing to.
If Biden does throw down the gauntlet and say what will be included, the left will be upset about that, but they are irrelevant. They will support whatever can be passed. They will cry foul and kick and scream, but in the end they will vote for it just like they voted for the ACA (I remember very well how much the left hated it, whining endlessly about it not having a public option; funny how you don’t hear them whining about it anymore and in fact they quite like it). If the left ultimately does vote against BBB, it will be their fault for it failing and they will be responsible for whatever fallout happens. In that case, it will be proven beyond any shadow of a doubt that their concerns about climate change, healthcare and, well, most everything, are insincere. They will have proven themselves to be no different from the Freedom Caucus and I would hope that every single one of them would get a primary challenge. Republicans may be fine with having elected representatives who just want to put on a show and get attention, but Democrats are supposed to care about governing and should have no tolerance for that.
Biden is not FDR and that’s a good thing
Biden loves to compare himself and to be compared to FDR. Leaving aside the much bigger majorities FDR had, he was starting from an extremely low base. When he took office in 1933, the federal safety net was basically non-existent. That is how he was able to create so many programs, many of which are still with us today.
The flip side of FDR’s success in creating so many programs is that it is impossible to be him. No president since has been as consequential, not even close. Because some of those programs, particularly Social Security, are so entrenched and popular, they are here to stay and are never going away. That is a very good thing.
Our safety net is not as robust as it should be. Biden has a big opportunity to expand it. But he will not be able to expand it like FDR did because FDR expanded by so much from so little. We should be glad of that because the safety net has saved and improved countless lives. I would not want to be starting from scratch and thank god that is not the case.
Being FDR is not required to be successful. LBJ presided over the creation of Medicare and Medicaid. That was not nearly as much as FDR presided over, but those programs are hugely beneficial and are very much with us today. Obama presided over the creation of the first ever national health insurance program in the ACA. He was nowhere near as consequential as FDR but was still a massively consequential president. It is now established that we will have a national healthcare policy and the ACA is here to stay beyond any shadow of a doubt. Biden has a chance to build on the ACA and climate change while creating a huge, lasting legacy. Joe Manchin is giving him that chance and it will be his fault if he doesn’t take it.
