Chuck Schumer made the right call

A shutdown was not going to end well. Choose your battles wisely

How’s everyone’s portfolio doing? It’s been it a bit of a rough few weeks for stocks. It’s best to not pay attention to it. You can’t do anything about it, but you can drive yourself insane, make bad decisions and lose money.

We’ll see what next week brings, but expect plenty of volatility. That’s probably a good expectation baseline for the next few years for almost everything. I have no idea what the stock market will look like in even a week, never mind in a few months or years. That’s all I have to say on that subject.

I was expecting to write again about trade, but an event has intervened. It’s not a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but it was a hot topic among political junkies and got plenty of attention so I can’t not write about it. More than just the particular episode itself, it illustrated a lot of problems with some Democrats. Namely, there are some, mostly but not entirely on the left, who believe in all kinds of magical thinking that was going to get them into trouble.

Late Friday afternoon, ten Democratic senators voted for cloture on the continuing resolution to prevent a shutdown from happening. The government will be funded until the end of September. A good bit of drama happened, but this time it was on the Democratic side. A lot of scorching hot takes have been given and so I’m going to spend some time here pouring cold water on them.

Let’s get the easiest stuff out of the way. The fight over the CR will not matter one bit electorally. It was a big story in DC and a non-event everywhere else. Congress is always full of palace intrigue and reporters crave it like oxygen. There are many congressional reporters who do great work and I think well of them¹, but they live in a very small world and sometimes forget that. Congressional soap operas are not something any normal person even knows about much less votes on.

Between normal people not following what happened and those in the politics business having the memory of a fruit fly, the last week will be ancient history by tomorrow. The drama gave those following politics closely a little detour from the Trump show, but we’ll be back to it soon. I have read many claim there will be a revolt against Chuck Schumer and other Democrats because of their not shutting down the government. Call me highly skeptical that will happen.

Plenty of Democrats are mad, but they’ll get over it soon. The Trump show will be back and their anger will be focused on it again. As for running left-wing primary challengers against incumbents, I’m sure we’ll hear and read plenty of hype about it but not much else. Democratic voters don’t want to nominate extremists. The two parties are very different and that includes what their voters want. Democratic voters care about winning above all else and are much more pragmatic than what you see online and on TV.

Even if there was a demand for left-wing primary challengers, very few Democrats voted for the CR. None in the House voted for it and of the ten in the Senate who did only one of them is up next year. If anyone reading this thinks the drama of the last week will be an issue in 2028 and beyond, I would love to take the opposing side of that bet so please let me know if you want to put money on it.

It looked like a shutdown was going to happen until Schumer announced he would support the CR. You can read his reasoning for doing it here. He made the right decision and showed very good leadership in doing so. He saved Democrats from a pointless fight they weren’t going to win. By taking the initiative and making himself the face of Democrats’ alleged caving to Trump, he spared other senators from having to deal with a lot of crap. Even though only ten Democrats voted for the CR, my guess is way more than ten wanted it to pass. I’m sure plenty in the House felt that way, too.

Contrary to what a lot of those in the politics business seem to believe, Democrats did have a strategy. Their strategy, however, had a big limitation in that it relied on things that were beyond their control. The only potential leverage Democrats had was in the House. It has been a long while since Republicans passed a CR on their own and it wasn’t unreasonable to think that pattern would repeat. Had that been the case, Mike Johnson would have had to rely on Democrats to pass the CR, which would have given them a say in what was in it.

What was different this time compared to previous Congresses is Republicans have the presidency. The most hardline Republicans would routinely vote against CRs because they didn’t include their desired spending cuts. Trump, however, pressured them into caving and succeeded. Once the House passed the CR on a party-line vote, Democrats had no leverage.

Sometimes things just don’t go your way and that’s life. It really is that simple. One of my coldest takes is that congressional Democrats are actually good at what they do. Look at what happened during the 2009-10 and 2021-22 legislative sessions. It’s not just in legislating where Democrats are successful, but in campaigning, too. Look at the Democrats who won in 2022 and 2024 when they should have been toast. It’s popular among Democrats online and on TV to hate on their party and complain about how it does nothing right, but they’re full of shit.

The Senate was where the most drama was, but it was never where the leverage was going to be. There was pressure on Senate Democrats to use the filibuster to prevent cloture from being invoked. The way the Senate now operates is almost everything is subject to the filibuster, meaning it requires 60 votes to end debate so legislation can be voted on. Had every Democrat in the Senate voted against cloture, the CR wouldn’t have been voted on and the government would currently be shut down.

The pressure on Senate Democrats to shut down the government came primarily from the party’s left-wing, including from activists, advocacy groups and the most left-wing members of Congress. In supporting cloture, Schumer didn’t just save Democrats from a pointless and unwinnable fight, he said no to the party’s loudest supporters. That’s one of the few times since 2016 where someone in a leadership position has said no to that crowd on a high profile matter. Good on him for doing that. I hope a whole lot more Democrats start to do that, especially those aspiring to run for president.

Clueless is as clueless does

According to advocates of a shutdown, if Democrats refused to support cloture, it would be Republicans’ fault. Somehow, Republicans would get blamed for the shutdown and would then agree to what Democrats were asking for. Their logic was impeccable. Phase 1 - shutdown the government. Phase 2 - nobody knows. Phase 3 - Republicans surrender. The Underpants Gnomes would be impressed.

The biggest ask Democrats had was to include in the CR a provision that expressly said what the DOGE is doing is illegal. I make it no secret that I have a very strong dislike of the DOGE. But the problem is not that there is no law against arbitrarily and hastily firing federal employees. That is already illegal, but they are doing it anyway. If only Musk was told what he’s doing is super-duper, ultra illegal times infinity, I’m sure he would be reasonable and stop.

The solution to what the DOGE is doing is in the courts. The good news is multiple lawsuits have been filed and have largely been successful. It’s unsatisfactory for those who want to “fight,” but we should trust the process here because it’s working.

Another Democratic ask was to include a provision in the CR saying Trump can’t impound money Congress has authorized to spend and use it as he pleases. That, too, is already the law. Trump says it’s unconstitutional and he will defy it. The idea that if he’s told again he can’t do that then he will stop is fantasy.

The firings of federal employees and impoundment will both wind up at the Supreme Court soon enough. My guess is SCOTUS will rule that the laws protecting federal employees from mass firings and prohibiting impoundment are constitutional. In that case, Democrats will be given what they were asking for. If Trump refuses to comply we will have a constitutional crisis on our hands, but let’s not panic over that just yet. Alternatively, if SCOTUS says those laws are unconstitutional and Trump is right, then no law passed by Congress now will matter.

The best cases I have read against shutting down the government and defending Schumer’s decision can be found here and here. What both argue is that Democrats have way more to lose in a shutdown than Republicans do. Trump in particular has nothing to lose and in fact would gain a lot more power to get rid federal employees.

When the government shuts down, all employees deemed “essential” remain on the job while the rest are furloughed. The president has fairly wide discretion to determine who is essential and who is not. Trump could decide employees in the departments he doesn’t like are non-essential and furlough them. A shutdown would effectively accomplish many of the DOGE’s goals.

If there was a shutdown it would mean a whole lot of government services are closed. Within a short time, pressure to reopen the government would be very strong and it would be on Democrats. The federal employees Democrats are trying to support would be the ones begging them to do it. Since Democrats would be asking Republicans to reopen the government, they would have to agree to what they wanted. That would likely mean voting on a new CR, which would be full of things they hate.

For the record, I think the CR that was passed is bad. If I had been in the House I would have voted against it, but it could’ve been much worse. After a week or two of federal employees begging Democrats to reopen the government, I can assure you whatever passed would be much less to their liking.

As far as who gets blamed for the shutdown in the media, it would be Democrats because they did it. That always happens with shutdowns. Those who instigate it get blamed. This time was not going to be different.

A problem those who instigate shutdowns run into is their party is never unified. That’s what happened each time Republicans were guilty of it. Democrats, including those from competitive districts and states, were all on the same page while Republicans were all over the place. Had a shutdown happened on Friday it would have been Democrats who were divided. Nobody in that situation has ever won a public relations battle.

Almost a year-and-a-half ago I wrote about the recent history of government shutdowns and some common features they all have so feel free to check it out. One common feature is those who instigate shutdowns never get what they want. Sorry magical thinkers, but Democrats weren’t going to defy that.

Of all the problems I had with those advocating for a shutdown, the biggest was that their arguments flunked pre-school level math and US government 101. I can’t take seriously anyone who doesn’t pass those tests. What shutdown advocates seemed to have forgotten is that Democrats are in the minority. They also seemed to be unaware of the existence of this thing called the presidency.

To have a majority in the House you need 218 seats. In the Senate, it’s 51 seats or 50 seats if you have the White House because of the VP. Currently, Democrats are at 213² and 47. When you’re in the minority, you can’t pass anything on your own. For all the handwringing since the election among activists, pundits and others over “Where are the Democrats?”, the answer is they don’t have the majority. In any party-line vote, they will come up short because they don’t have the required numbers. As inconvenient as it is for those with self-serving hot takes and narratives, math is math.

The idea that Democrats in Congress could somehow beat Republicans if they would just “fight” is braindead stupid on every level. Schumer doesn’t have a magic wand he can wave and make Senate Republicans bend to his will. Hakeem Jeffries can’t cast a spell on House Republicans and make them do what he wants. The only way congressional Democrats will be able to effectively “fight” Trump is to win elections. The soonest that can happen is November 2026. Until then, they’re going to be in the minority.

Even if Democrats pulled a rabbit out of a hat and got congressional Republicans to yield, there is Trump. He wants to dismantle much of the government, which is why he wanted there be a shutdown. If somehow congressional Republicans gave in to every demand Democrats made, they would have to either convince Trump to care about reopening the government or be willing to pass legislation over his veto. The chances of either of those things happening are zero.

Between now and the midterms, Democrats should vote against bad and unpopular things Republicans push for. Schumer is absolutely right to emphasize that the fight over the CR is small potatoes. The much more consequential fight is going to be over extending the tax cuts and the potential spending cuts that come with it. Democrats should oppose it and they should try to draw attention to how bad it is, but that’s all they can do. If Republicans can stay together and pass it, even if it’s toxically unpopular, Democrats can’t stop them no matter how much they “fight.”

Here’s another cold take for you: Democrats don’t need to “fight” Trump at all. He’s doing their work for them. His approval rating is already underwater and he seems determined to tank the economy. The good economy from 2017-19 was the only thing keeping him from a total collapse in support during his first term. If voters sour on his handling of the economy, he could become radioactive and make the midterms a blue tsunami. None of that requires Democrats to lift a finger.

That’s one more reason why a shutdown wouldn’t have been good for Democrats. It would have taken attention away from Trump if only momentarily. Trump will never be on a ballot again. I doubt he cares about how unpopular he gets, but he’s digging a whole lot of Republicans’ political graves. Democrats shouldn’t try to take away his shovel even for a second.

As usual, the left-wing advocacy world doesn’t get it

I think the desire to “fight” just for its own sake is dumb and an indictment of those cheering for it. Listening to those on the left demanding Democrats “fight” reminds me of the Freedom Caucus. That crowd loves to pick fights with Republican congressional leaders, put on shows and make outlandish demands that never get met. I really don’t want Democrats to have their own version of that.

There are many out there who see politics as just another form of entertainment. Politics to them is no different from having a favorite sports team or TV show. Usually, people like that are on the right (see MAGA), but the left is not immune to it and much of the left-wing advocacy world operates that way.

I have many problems with those in the left-wing advocacy world, but a big one is their failure to understand the concept of persuasion and to acknowledge that they are a minority. Holding a minority viewpoint is not at all inherently wrong, but you have to be aware that your position is not shared by most. Once you acknowledge that, you can address it in one of two ways.

The first is to accept that your position is unpopular and you’re not going to get what you want. The second is to do the hard and slow work of persuasion. That is how every viewpoint that went from being unpopular to popular succeeded.

The left-wing advocacy world has decided to not take either of those routes. What they have opted to do is to convince themselves that their positions are popular and to pressure Democratic candidates and elected officials into endorsing them. A favorite tactic of theirs is to protest against Democrats, including outside their offices and homes. The idea is that if they generate bad press for Democrats, then they will give in to their demands and since their demands are popular they will get everything they want.

Unfortunately, the left-wing advocacy world has had a lot of success recently in getting attention and getting Democrats to cater to them. That hasn’t made any of their positions more popular and certainly hasn’t resulted in any of them getting enacted, but it has made Democrats less popular in many places. That’s a problem for many reasons, namely it makes it harder for Democrats to win in places they need to so they can actually “fight” Trump.

Those in the left-wing advocacy world largely don’t care about winning elections anymore. Winning for them means winning power within the Democratic Party. A good recent example of that is the ostensibly pro-Palestine protests in 2023 and last year. Have you noticed since the election they’ve disappeared? That’s because those protesters never cared about that issue. They’re omnicause leftists who just wanted to gain power within the Democratic Party, which, if they had their way, would be a very small tent.

Obviously, anyone who wants Democrats to win elections should find that crowd to be very unappealing. The good news is most Democrats in positions of authority recognize they’re bad even if I sometimes wish they would be louder about it. That’s why I really hope Schumer’s actions over the week are the beginning of a new trend.

To win elections in places like Iowa and Ohio, to say nothing of long-time red states, Democrats will need to run candidates who are different from what is seen as the national party. That doesn’t mean they’re right-wingers, but it does mean differentiating from the perceived national party in some big, high profile ways. The left-wing advocacy world has adopted a worldview that is the antithesis of that and they’re doing everything they can to make Trump look appealing by comparison.

For all Democrats who want to “fight” Trump substantively, the first step is to ignore the party’s left-wing and not care what they think. Democrats came up just short in the House last year. If they had three more seats they would have the majority, last week would have gone down very differently and there would be no chance in hell of big cuts to food stamps and Medicaid. If they win the House next year, it will be because of candidates who won in purple or red-leaning districts, i.e., not The Squad.

That’s what irritates me so much about the most left-wing members of Congress. They all come from safe blue seats. Anyone with a D next to their name will win those districts no matter what. It’s easy for them to go to rallies, protest and tweet about their fantasy ideas when they don’t have to worry about any consequences. They aren’t going to change their ways and that’s okay. Everyone in the Democratic Party to their right just has to not pay attention to them and keep their eyes on the prize.

1. If you really want to know play-by-play what’s happening in Congress, checkout Punchbowl News. They’re a great team and they do great work.

2. Two Democratic House members have died in as many weeks. I’m not a fan of term limits, but I’m all for age limits. Nobody older than 75 should be in Congress and every candidate’s medical records should be public. I don’t think it’s unreasonable for us to have the right to know if the person we’re electing may not be able to finish out their term.