Israel no longer cares what the US thinks. That's good

Maybe I need to read a lot more, but I found the below article to be one of the best things I have read about the state of US-Israel relations. The crux is that Israel is not nearly as reliant on the US for support as it was in previous years and decades and so the leverage the US has over Israel is much smaller. Israel has become vastly more self-sufficient over the last few decades, both in terms of their military and economy. While Israel once relied heavily on US aid, that is much less the case today.

For the longest time, the only major ally Israel had was the US. Now, they have cultivated relationships with countries all over the world. Often, these countries have been places that are hostile towards democracy or headed that way, such as Brazil and Hungary. The last year has seen Israel forge diplomatic breakthroughs with countries traditionally hostile towards them, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

One effect of Israel’s self-sufficiency in providing its own security is that it has made Palestinian attacks much less effective. One result has been that the perennial Israeli-Palestinian peace process has largely been abandoned and Israelis are mostly content with the status quo. While skirmishes with Palestinians still happen, as was demonstrated again just recently, such fighting is much less painful, at least from Israel’s perspective. As the article points out, most of the weapons and weapon systems Israel uses to defend itself against Palestinian attacks are homemade. They no longer have to depend on the US for that and therefore do not care what the US thinks they should do.

Overall, I think these developments are good from a US perspective or at least should be seen that way. Israel becoming less dependent on the US or any one country for its salvation is exactly what we should want. At the end of the day, Israel is a sovereign country that is capable of making its own choices. We should want them to be able to fend for themselves and not have to rely on us to watch them. I think it is unfortunate to see a democratic country form alliances with the likes of Bolsonaro and Orban, but that is their choice. Countries do what they need to do to survive and Israel is no different. Given that they are surrounded by places that still do not recognize their right to exist, it is understandable, if regrettable, that they would go to such lengths.

I think the most important thing the US should be doing now is to support the Abraham Accords. If Israel can achieve establish diplomatic relations with its Arab neighbors, that would be a very good thing on so many levels from a US perspective. For starters, it would allow for Israel and its new allies to take charge of dealing with Iran. It has been nice to see some of the Arab countries finally recognize that they have bigger fish to fry than worrying about Israel. I am not sure how I feel about the deal the US and others made with Iran in 2015, but I do not think rejoining it should be a priority. Ultimately, Iran should be dealt with by Israel and its new allies since they are located next to each other. I do not want there to be a war in the Middle East, but policymakers in the US need to recognize that it is not an important part of the world for us. Anything that helps our policymakers get to that realization is a good thing.

At the most macro level, if Israel and its new allies become the new Middle East police, that would mean the US could finally get out of there. I have been banging on that drum for longer than I can remember. Ideally, we would not have any military presence there. While we would still have a diplomatic presence, it would be very low on our list of concerns. We should keep on eye on the region, but from a distance. The resources that are currently being used on the Middle East could be brought back home or used abroad elsewhere in places that are important to us.

Looking at the history of our involvement in the Middle East for the last 70 years, I am hard pressed to find any real benefits that have come from it. Costs, on the other hand, have been massive in terms of lives lost and time and money wasted. The reality is that region has basically no relevance to us. No countries there are major competitors of ours in any way nor are they major trading partners. The only major resource there is oil, which the US has plenty of and hopefully will become less and less relevant over the coming years and decades with the widespread use of electric cars and other oil substitutes.

Geographically, of course, the Middle East is a long way from the US. Conflicts there are much less likely to lead to problems over here by virtue of that, particularly with respect to immigration. That is not to say we should not allow immigration from there, we absolutely should. What it is to say is that we do not have to worry about a large influx of people coming in illegally, as has happened before with our southern neighbors. While a case can be made that we should help out countries in Latin America so as to stem the tide of illegal immigration here, no such case can be made for the Middle East.

As the article mentions, the amount of aid the US provides to Israel is a tiny share of its economy, much smaller than 40 years ago. I do not think we should eliminate it overnight, but we should begin winding it down and eventually get it down to zero. Israel has plenty of resources at its disposal and does not need to rely on us for support. That is a good thing. We should want sovereign countries to be independent and self-sufficient. Israel has achieved that.

Regarding the Palestinian situation, it is a mess, but that has been true for decades. One presidential administration after another has spent a ton of time trying to bring the two sides together and has gotten almost nothing for their efforts. We should no longer be trying to achieve any sort of peace. It would be great if Israelis and Palestinians could work out a two-state solution of some kind, but that will be up to them. Israel right now is content with the status quo and that alone guarantees any peace attempts will fail. Say what you will about that, but it is not something for the US to be concerned with. Either Israelis and Palestinians will figure something out or not. Either way, it is their choice, not ours.

I have no doubt that my view of the Middle East is an outlier right now. Reversing a 70-year-old paradigm does not happen overnight, but hopefully that will begin to change soon. What policymakers need to realize is that our number one competitor by far is China. That fact should be the single biggest guide to our foreign policy, whether that is dealing with economic or security matters. The Middle East has no relevance to that. If our leaving the Middle East entices China to go over there, all the better. Let them get bogged down there and throw away trillions of dollars. Maybe Russia can join them, too, for another misadventure.