Processing the midterms
I owe you an apology, dear reader. In my last post two weeks ago, I said I would have one more post on the midterms last weekend. That did not happen. I thought about writing one, but decided I did not have anything more to offer. I also am hesitant to make predictions about much of anything and did not want to predict how the midterms were going to go. Now that they are done (except another runoff in Georgia), here is what I have to say about it. There is a ton of stuff on my mind and I may wind up writing another post.
What happened on Tuesday was not supposed to happen. There was supposed to be a red wave. Biden’s approval rating is in the 40s. Inflation is at a 40-year high. Dissatisfaction with where the country is going is sky high. Crime, while not nearly as high as 30 years ago, has surged compared to 2019. In general, the party in the White House almost always loses seats in midterm elections. All of those things pointed to a Republican House and Senate and gains on the state level.
As of now, none of those things have happened. While Republicans are more likely than not to win the House, it will be by the skin of their teeth. Their majority may well be less than 220. Given that they still have to deal with the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz and the Freedom Caucus, Kevin McCarthy’s life for the next 2 years may be a living hell. That was not supposed to happen. Republicans should have won at least 20 seats, maybe even 30 or more.
Right now, Democrats have 49 Senate seats. Mark Kelly and Maggie Hassan were reelected. Democrats flipped the seat in Pennsylvania with John Fetterman beating Dr. Oz. Nevada is close now, but the remaining ballots should favor Catherine Cortez Masto, the Democrat. If she wins, Democrats would control the Senate even without winning the Georgia runoff next month. That was not supposed to happen. Mitch McConnell should be celebrating being majority leader again.
On the state level, Democrats retained the governorships they held everywhere but Nevada. Josh Shapiro won in Pennsylvania in a rout. Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan was reelected by 11 points, the same margin as Greg Abbott in Texas. Tony Evers and Laura Kelly won in Wisconsin and Kansas, respectively. Democrats held on to governorships in Minnesota, New Mexico, Maine and Oregon. Arizona will probably come down to the wire and could go either way, but as of now the Democrat is ahead. That was not supposed to happen. Republicans should be gaining multiple governorships.
With respect to state legislatures, that was the biggest surprise of them all. Democrats gained control of the Michigan legislature for the first time in 40 years. Democrats also gained control of the legislature in Minnesota. It remains to be seen what happens in Arizona, but they probably have a shot at gaining the legislature there given how other races have gone. Republicans did not gain a single state legislature. When was the last time the party not in the White House failed to pick up a single legislature in a midterm? 1934. That was not supposed to happen. Republicans should be sweeping state legislatures like they did in 2010.
Craziness is a loser
As it turns out, voters really do care about democracy after all. I admit I did not believe that message would work. Biden and other Democrats hit on it repeatedly, but it seemed to be falling flat. It looked like concerns over inflation would override everything else. How wrong that was. Across the country, candidates who were the most Trumpy did poorly.
In gubernatorial races in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Maryland and Arizona, Republicans nominated election deniers. Arizona is still too close to call, but Democrats won the other races. In races for secretary of state in Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, New Mexico and Minnesota, Republicans nominated election deniers. They all lost. In races for attorney general in Nevada, Arizona and Michigan, Republicans nominated election deniers. Arizona is too close to call, but they lost in Nevada and Michigan.
In Senate races, Republicans nominated election deniers in New Hampshire, Nevada and Arizona. They lost in New Hampshire and Arizona and I expect them to lose in Nevada. Herschel Walker in Georgia is in a runoff because he substantially underperformed the other Republicans running for statewide offices. They all avoided runoffs. While Walker has acknowledged Biden won the election, he is by all measures a lunatic.
The craziness of so many Republican candidates is what prompted a huge number of independents to vote for Democrats. Despite a large majority of those voters believing things were headed in the wrong direction and having a negative view of Biden and Democrats, they voted for Democrats. That is almost unheard of. What usually happens in midterms is that self-described independents vote decisively for the party not in the White House. That did not happen on Tuesday. There is clearly a major penalty for being seen by voters as a lunatic.
As much as I dislike the craziness on the left/Democrats, it has nothing on the craziness on the right/Republicans. Democrats have largely kept their crazies in check. Republicans have let their crazies run the show. Voters seemed to share that assessment. In Michigan, for example, the Republican candidate for governor, in addition to being an election denier, ran ad after ad talking about transgender athletes. Her entire campaign centered around red meat culture war issues designed to rile up the Republican base. It succeeding in riling up Republicans, but drove away most everyone else and she got crushed.
The only people more out of touch than the woke crowd are those who treat them like they are the biggest problem there is. People care about concrete issues that affect their lives, not about the latest culture war fight of the hour. All candidates running in competitive races should make note of that.
I wrote before that Trump is in a league of his own. What I meant was that his appeal was unique and could not be replicated by anyone else. I would say the results on Tuesday have vindicated that. Many Republican candidates across the country did their best Trump impression, but it was just that. They acted like Trump, but did not have his appeal. It was the worst of both worlds. Acting like Trump alienated the same people he alienates, but not having his appeal meant those candidates did not bring in the voters he brought in. I think that explains a large part of why so many of them went down in flames.
Status quo bias is strong
When a party controls the White House and Congress, they try to pass legislation. Often times, that legislation entails significant changes to the way things are. Examples include Bush’s attempt to partially private Social Security and Obama’s pushing for the Affordable Care Act. Both provoked major backlashes and were followed by bloody midterms for the party in the White House.
It is basically unheard of for the party out of the White House to be the one enacting the biggest change to the status quo, but that is what happened this year. What was that change? Roe v Wade was reversed in June. Soon after, states across the country banned abortion. For many people, the biggest change in their lives that they noticed or that people they knew were affected by were those bans.
Biden and congressional Democrats have successfully gotten enacted many things so far, but none of them have had the direct impact on people’s lives that abortion bans have had. For the longest time, Republicans could run against abortion and voters did not pay much attention to it because there was nothing Republicans could do about it. Now, with Roe gone, they are playing with live ammo. That changes everything.
While there was plenty of speculation before Roe was reversed that it could be a game changer in the midterms, it was entirely theoretical. Many seemed to think that it gave Democrats an initial surge in enthusiasm, but that it was fading as concerns about inflation took precedence. In retrospect, that was clearly wrong and the vote in Kansas in August was a harbinger of things to come.
On Tuesday, voters in Michigan approved a constitutional amendment protecting the right to abortion by a 57-43 margin. The bigger surprise was in Kentucky. Voters there rejected an amendment to the constitution saying there was no right to abortion. The margin was close, 52-48, but this is Kentucky we are talking about. Kentucky is a blood red state that is very socially conservative and is home to Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul. To say I am stunned by the result would be the understatement of the century. If the pro-choice position is a winner in Kentucky, it should be a winner virtually everywhere.
I wrote over the summer about how I think the pro-choice movement can win and the steps I think they should take after Roe. I highly doubt anyone in Kansas, Michigan or Kentucky who worked on those efforts is reading this blog, but to all of them I say that was a job well done. In each of those states, the pro-choice side ran a campaign specific to those states. They ran on messages that people in those states liked, not what appeals to professional activists. I was very encouraged by the success of the Kansas campaign and have become much more optimistic about the pro-choice movement’s odds of succeeding. After Tuesday, I am even more hopeful.
Just as encouraging as the ballot initiatives was that candidates who ran on hardline anti-abortion positions lost in key states. Gubernatorial candidates in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin all supported complete bans on abortion. Candidates for attorney general in Michigan and Wisconsin also ran on hardline opposition to abortion.
It is undeniable that abortion had a major impact on the midterms. I think without it, Democrats would have been facing a red wave. It took what was previously a lack of enthusiasm among their voters and helped give it a major jolt. It also likely helped convince many independents who disapprove of Biden to vote for Democrats.
A very uneven pattern
In a wave election, one party tends to do uniformly well almost everywhere. That is not what happened on Tuesday. The states where Republicans did the best were Florida and New York. Throughout the midwest, Democrats did very well, especially in Pennsylvania and Michigan. To paraphrase Crocodile Dundee, that’s not a red wave.
To say that this election was bizarre is putting it mildly. For Democrats to be struggling in New York, a solidly blue state, while thriving in Pennsylvania and Michigan, perennial purple states, is mind boggling. It should be the opposite, but that is what happened.
In New York, Republicans gained several House seats, which will probably make or break their majority. In the gubernatorial race, the Democrat, Kathy Hochul, won by a very unimpressive 6 points. She was lucky that her opponent opposed abortion and supported Trump. A more moderate Republican probably would have won.
In Pennsylvania, Democrats thrived. Josh Shapiro was elected governor by 14 points. The Senate race was closer, but John Fetterman still won by a little more than 4 points. Most seemed to think it would go down to the wire and the result would not be known for a few days. It was called early Wednesday morning. There were 3 House races Republicans were trying to win. They lost all of them. In the state legislature, the state house is basically even with Democrats maybe having a slight edge.
A similar situation happened in Michigan. Gretchen Whitmer should have been in the fight of her life. She won easily as did the Democratic attorney general and secretary of state. Democrats actually gained a House seat and Elissa Slotkin was reelected. As I mentioned earlier, Democrats won the state house and senate as well and now have full control of the state government. All this happened in a midterm where Democrats are the party in the White House and the president has an approval rating in the 40s. Kafka stories make more sense than that.
As for Florida, it was a disaster for Democrats. Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio were reelected by 19 and 16 points, respectively. Democrats did not show up at all. The good news for Democrats is that was largely confined to Florida and did not happen in many other places. Florida is a red state now and I think Democrats should cut it loose. Any Democratic Party operation or group that is trying to help Democrats win should pack up their things and move to Texas. I am being 100% serious.
Ron DeSantis did much better than Greg Abbott. Beto O’Rourke managed to get 44% of the vote despite it not being a great year for Democrats. He even managed to hold his own in most suburban areas, which is a great sign for the future. He also helped Democrats win downballot. In Harris County, the biggest county in the state by far, Democrats expanded their majority on the county commission and won virtually every countywide race. Absent O’Rourke’s efforts, that was not going to happen.
Texas has many trends going in Democrats’ favor. Democrats have made big inroads in fast growing areas, particularly Austin and DFW. In 2024, Ted Cruz will be up. Unless things are going terribly for Democrats, he will get a strong challenger. All efforts should be made to win that seat. Forget Florida. It is heading in the opposite direction. Biden should campaign in Texas in 2024 and not even bother going to Florida. Yes, Biden will be running in 2024. After how well Democrats did on Tuesday, any talk of him not running again should end.