Thank god for Joe Biden
I have to admit Joe Biden was not my first choice among the two dozen plus Democrats who ran for President. Before the pandemic, I thought Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bennet were the best bets. I was even somewhat Bloomberg curious. Ultimately, I voted for Biden after Klobuchar endorsed him, Bennet went nowhere and Bloomberg fizzled. Thank God we nominated Joe Biden.
Under normal circumstances, I would be worried about that. He has a long voting record to attack. His handling of Hunter Biden was very weak. His history of gaffes, while overblown, leaves him open to all kinds of attacks. He normally would be vulnerable to being accused of being a career politician and creature of “the establishment.”
These are not normal times at all. On top of a pandemic, we have double digit unemployment and widespread anger over police abuses. For a time like this, Biden is a great fit. One thing he does very well is empathy, having lost two children and his first wife. After all the suffering the country has been through, consoling is desperately needed. In light of Trump’s complete bungling of the pandemic, I suspect people will be placing a much higher premium on experience this time, also a Biden strength.
Biden keeps his eye on the ball
There are so many misconceptions about where the Democratic Party is. As I have written before, there is a big disconnect between what people online think and what actual Democrats think. Joe Biden gets this. While candidate after candidate spent much of 2019 racing out into leftfield, Biden did not. While he moved left on some issues, he held firm on others and did not embrace the most toxic ideas on the left. For example, he did not support banning fracking, abolishing ICE or eliminating private health insurance.
Since wrapping up the nomination, he has kept up the same pattern. For example, while he has embraced Black Lives Matter and has supported popular reforms such as banning chokeholds and creating a database of police officers punished for wrongdoing, he has avoided supporting defunding the police. The same has also been true on tearing down statutes. While he supports taking down Confederate statues, he has drawn the line there and has avoided getting dragged into debates about other statues.
Looking back, I do not know how many other Democrats would have been able to keep that kind of discipline, especially the younger ones who have come of age when Twitter has been dominant. Biden has been adept at ignoring Twitter and avoiding getting distracted by the latest flashpoint. He recognizes that when it comes to voting, people are concerned with the pandemic and how it has been handled. Dealing with unemployment and policing reforms are also top priorities. Most everything else is not.
As someone who spends a good time of time going through Twitter, I can tell you that every single day there is some new controversy raging on that website that has no relevance anywhere else. There is almost always a discussion of wokeness or cancel culture. With Biden, I do not have to worry one bit about these daily controversies because I know, like normal voters, he is not paying any attention to them. I do not have to worry about him feeling the need to take a stand on some obscure culture war issue and potentially hand Trump a lifeline.
Biden is a good fit for where Democrats need to win and beyond
Democrats have made huge gains in the suburbs since 2016. That is the reason they control the House and why states like Arizona and Georgia are now competitive. Texas may not be far behind. However, not every Democrat can continue that progress. While a center or center-left Democrat can, a left of far-left likely cannot. Biden is very much in the former camp.
Hillary Clinton, despite her baggage, made some big gains in the suburbs in 2016. Biden is well-positioned to continue and build on it. I think there are other Democrats who could have done that as well, but I have no doubt about Biden. Clinton’s biggest weakness was in the Midwest. Biden has shown strength there and is well-positioned to win back states she lost.
Democrats will also need to keep their base. Black voters are a significant portion of the Democratic Party and Biden is in a good position to increase their turnout and maintain high margins with them. While young voters may not love him, after the protests I suspect they will vote for him heavily nonetheless. All in all, Biden is well-positioned to build on progress made since 2016 and keep the base intact.
Biden recognizes Trump is imploding
Biden has run a very low key campaign. This is understandable given the pandemic, but he could make plenty of news if he wanted. He has wisely chosen to lay low. He recognizes he is well ahead and that with him in the background the attention will be on Trump and how he has mishandled the pandemic. Every time Trump opens his mouth, the Biden ads write themselves. Biden recognizes this and is allowing Trump to sabotage himself.
Also wisely, Biden has held few public appearances. He recognizes that the pandemic is not going away and therefore little attention will be paid to him. He knows he needs to avoid any slip ups or anything that would give Trump an opening. His few appearances have been scripted and largely focused on specific issues. For all the talk from some about how Biden needs to be out there, he recognizes that this is not the case. I am not sure how many other Democrats would have recognized that, but Biden has and thank God for that.
Biden has put out plenty of plans for various issues. This will be important for him to govern, but for now is helping to present a sharp contrast to Trump, which is all he really needs to do. As Trump shows time and again, he has no plan for the pandemic or anything else. He has all but given up trying to help and is just flailing at this point.
Biden gets the real lessons of 2016
Some people seem to believe that Trump has some kind of magic power and is a political juggernaut. As I have written before, this is wrong. Whether coincidental or deliberate strategy, Biden is certainly campaigning like he knows that.
The fact is, Trump did not win in 2016 so much as Clinton lost. The same dynamic was true in the Democratic primary. Bernie Sanders did much better than anyone thought possible, myself included. Looking back, however, it is clear that the reason for it is not what he or many other Democrats thought. He did well not because Democrats hated Obama and wanted to become socialists, he did well because he was not Clinton. The second he was up against a non-Clinton, he lost decisively.
I suspect many Democrats misinterpreted his 2016 performance to think the party was going way leftward and so they needed to catch up. Biden did not make that mistake. Your average Democrat is not a socialist woke warrior. Ironically, this is one area where Biden is similar to Trump: he understood his party’s base better than anyone else running. He recognized that the path to winning was not through 20 year old socialists, but through the southern states, beginning with South Carolina, where voters tend to be older and more moderate.
It’s hard to get fired up about Biden (that’s good)
Many nominees for President have an enthusiastic following that is infatuated with them. Trump has this more than anyone else, but most every president has had it. Biden does not have anything like that. While some may worry about enthusiasm, I see that as a feature not a bug. Trump takes care of the enthusiasm problem. People may not be thrilled about voting for Biden, but they are absolutely thrilled about voting against Trump.
While having an enthusiastic base has its upsides, it has downsides as well. Trump has a very motivated base, but his appeals to them fire up those who dislike him and they are more numerous. He has also only made efforts to appeal to his base, further putting him at a disadvantage. While it is hard to get fired up for Biden, it is just as hard to hate him. This gets to a big lesson of 2016: much of what drove Trump support was hatred of Clinton. Clinton was a hated figure among Republicans and had been for decades. Biden does not inspire any real hatred, even from Trump himself. As I have written before, Trump barely mentioned Biden at his Tulsa rally. That pattern has largely held true since.
In fact, one upside to Biden being a boring white man is that it deprives Trump of playing the race card or sexist card against him. Trump has gotten used to those attacks against Obama and Clinton, but they do not work on Biden. Biden is no fire breather either, which makes it hard for people to fear him or think he is some kind of extremist, something that would have been a problem for Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. Biden is basically your nice, bland, old uncle.