Trouble at the border and the problem of listening to activists

Joe Biden did an amazing job in the primary last year of ignoring left-wing activists. On issues like healthcare, he avoided embracing eliminating private insurance. On climate change, he opposed banning fracking. He did not embrace free college for everyone or promise to cancel all student debt. He avoided the culture wars and opposed defunding the police. On immigration, while he did not call for abolishing ICE, he unfortunately made a series of bad promises to activists and the result is what is happening now at the border.

It is understandable that Democrats would have a Pavlovian response to Trump on the issue. He was awful on so many levels. The problem is that what was once a fringe view of abolishing ICE and effectively opposing all immigration enforcement is now becoming more mainstream. Many Democrats seem to have decided that because Trump was extreme, they should go to the opposite extreme. That is an awful idea that will accomplish nothing of substance but will give Republicans plenty of oxygen.

As the article below points out, it is unclear what the Democratic position is on immigration. What worries me is that it has become a de facto welcome sign for all to come. Undoubtedly, the current situation is not good. Having thousands of people showing up and living in awful conditions is not tenable. What is worse though is encouraging more of it and that is what is happening. Biden has given migrants the perception that they will be allowed in and so naturally they are flocking here.

To be clear, I support a pathway to citizenship for those who have been here for many years even if they are not here legally right now. This kind of legislation has been passed by the Senate before. It also included border enforcement and other security measures. I support that, too. But that is far cry from allowing in thousands of people at once.

Here’s the reality: contrary to what immigration activists seem to think, the US is a country. It is not a charity. We have borders and rules and they need to be enforced. They should be enforced humanely, but enforced nonetheless. While Trump was horrible and unpopular, the only thing less popular than ripping kids from their parents is being against any immigration enforcement at all. I worry that the latter is how Democrats are going to be perceived.

If people are given the choice between Trump’s cruelty and open borders, they will go with Trump every time. That is why it is critical that Democrats not cede the high ground. They need to show that they are serious about border enforcement. That may mean turning away a whole lot of people and deporting others, but it needs to be done, just as it was under Obama. We simply cannot invite the whole world in or give people the perception that we are doing that. The message needs to be sent that people flocking here will have to go back, including unaccompanied minors. Anything less than that is going to make the situation worse.

This may sound harsh given that many of the migrants are fleeing from bad situations, but it is the political reality we are in. Allowing for everyone to come in is toxically unpopular. Getting support for measures similar to what the Senate has passed can be done. Getting support for open borders is not going to happen and is politically suicidal.

Maybe someone reading this thinks open borders should be pursued because it is morally right and ICE is evil. That is nice and well, but the Democratic Party is supposed to be in the business of winning elections. Taking toxically unpopular positions is a great way to undermine that while ensuring the Trumps of the world get their way. Winning elections is not an end to itself, but is absolutely necessary. All the moral high ground in the world is meaningless without the ability to enact any of it. At the end of the day, voters are always right, not because they are morally right, but because they are voters. Here, voters are saying they want immigration enforcement and they will get it.

One problem that Democrats and the left are having as of late in explaining their thoughts on immigration is articulating how it will help citizens. They have done a great job of talking about those who are not here legally and those striving for citizenship, but have devoted almost all of their arguments to them. The problem is that by definition they cannot vote. Democrats and their supporters need to explain to voters what is in it for them. This absolutely can be done and needs to be the focus if anything is ever going to be passed.

This brings us to the problem of activists. On any issue, it is common that the most vocal people are also the most extreme. Often immigration activists will want to let everyone in and get rid of all immigration enforcement. It is critical to remember that they do not speak for many people. In fact, they speak for only a small slice at most. That is true on virtually every issue. The lesson is to ignore them. They can scream all they want, but they are not representative of voters as a whole. If the choice is between upsetting them and alienating whole swaths of voters, it should be obvious which course to take.

While Hispanic immigration activists want people to think they speak for all Hispanics, they emphatically do not. Contrary to a once very popular narrative, Hispanic voters are not driven by immigration.  That was never true, but in light of Trump’s significant improvement with Hispanics last year, that idea should be laid to rest once and for all. In fact, as the article points out, working-class voters, who Democrats need, tend to be more opposed to immigration than higher-income voters. That includes many working-class Hispanics. How much Trump’s position on immigration helped him with Hispanics is unclear, but it clearly did not prevent him from making gains.

I admit that I do not know what the best policy is for the current border situation. The article points out several possibilities for how to deal with it. It has been around for some time and will not go away overnight. What I am sure of is that we should not be encouraging more of it.

As far as the political fallout goes, it is way too early to tell. Naturally, most everyone is focusing on COVID and the end of the pandemic. The economic boom should go a long way towards making people happy and focusing their attention on that. I suspect the border issue will continue getting plenty of attention even if it is not the number one focus. My worry is that if it persists it may become that, especially once the pandemic is over.

That would be a really bad outcome and a self-inflicted wound. Right now, the Republicans are in disarray. They have no substantive policies to offer. It has been astonishing to watch Democrats spend $1.9 trillion and the Republicans basically said nothing about it, preferring to talk about the latest culture war flavor of the week. I would love for that to continue.

Unlike some of the fears Republicans love to invoke like the infamous caravan or Dr. Seuss being cancelled, the problems at the border are real. They are tailor made to give Republicans something to rally around. I have written before about how they are dangerous and a threat to democracy and should not be allowed anywhere near the reins of power. Successfully doing that will mean, more than anything else, not giving them something to rally around. Passing the COVID relief package was good and so is focusing on infrastructure and dealing with China next. Avoiding the culture wars, as Biden has, is also good. The coming economic boom and boost in morale from it should help, too. But the situation at the border could undermine all that.