Tuesday's elections and the national political environment
We’re living in the most bizarre political time since polling was invented. Per 538, Biden’s approval rating is roughly 39% and has been trending downward lately. It has been in the low 40s or lower for more than two years. With those numbers, Democrats downballot should be getting creamed, but they’ve been thriving. Tuesday was no exception.
There were not many elections held since it’s an odd-numbered year, but Democrats did well almost everywhere. Andy Beshear was reelected governor of Kentucky. Democrats won an open state supreme court seat in Pennsylvania and killed it in lower court and key county level and school board races. In Virginia, Democrats kept control of the state senate and gained back the state house. Most significantly, voters in Ohio approved the right to abortion in the state constitution. That makes it the seventh state in a row to vote for a pro-choice measure or against an anti-abortion measure since Dobbs.
The election results by themselves probably tell us little about what will happen next year. Turnout is always going to be low for elections held in odd-numbered years. Next year it will be much higher, which could be good for Democrats or not. That has been one big twist of the Trump-Biden years. During the Obama years, Democrats did poorly in elections with low turnout. They did well in 2008 and 2012 when Obama was on the ballot, but, when he wasn’t on the ballot, his coalition was very unreliable when it came time to vote.
Fast forward to today and it’s Democrats who have a reliable voting coalition while Republicans have a problem with unreliable voters. Trump, more than anything else, is the catalyst of that. Since 2016, non-college voters have moved towards Republicans while college-educated voters have moved towards Democrats. The former outnumbers the latter, but is much less likely to vote, especially in non-presidential elections. Two big unknowns for next year are how many of the voters who showed up in 2020 but haven’t voted since will show up next year and whether they will still back Trump as much as they have before.
Abortion is still a huge deal
Although Tuesday’s results have limited value in telling us about next year, some trends and themes that have emerged since 2016 and especially since last year played out again and are worth looking at. In particular, the backlash to Dobbs is far from over. Some may have worried or hoped that it would subside, but there’s no sign of it at all.
The most obvious point in favor of that is Ohio. Abortion rights were not just enshrined in the state constitution, the vote wasn’t close. It was approved by a 57-43 margin. Both sides spent plenty of money and every single statewide Republican official was very vocal against it. Ohio has been trending red lately and has been ground zero for the benefits of making gains with non-college voters.
I wouldn’t assume it’s a swing state again just based on abortion. Many of those who voted “yes” are Republicans and will keep voting that way. It just goes to show that the pro-choice cause is very popular and Democrats have a big advantage on it almost everywhere. I have no doubt it will play a huge role in Sherrod Brown’s reelection campaign next year.
Abortion was also a big issue in the Kentucky governor’s race. Beshear emphasized it heavily and attacked his opponent for his stance on it. In Virginia, Glenn Youngkin campaigned for Republican candidates and emphasized a fifteen week ban as a “middle ground” compromise. The legislative elections there were basically a referendum on that position and it lost.[i] Abortion was also a big issue in the supreme court race in Pennsylvania.
While abortion is a highly salient issue that people care about and will vote on, the same can’t be said of gender issues. That is something I have written about before. Nobody cares about any of that even in red states. Beshear’s Republican opponent attacked him repeatedly for his alleged support of gender affirming care. In Ohio, abortion opponents tried to link the amendment to gender issues and their efforts fell flat. That was what happened to similar efforts by Republican candidates and abortion opponents in the midterms.
This doesn’t mean the cultural left position on gender issues is popular. It most likely is not. What it means is that they aren’t things people vote on. Anyone who is campaigning on those issues, no matter what their position is, is out of touch.
Democrats on Tuesday continued to do well in suburban areas. One unknown after 2020 was how much of the suburban gains Democrats enjoyed when Trump was in office was just because of him and how much was enduring. When Youngkin won in 2021 it looked like former, but since Dobbs it has looked like the latter.
The Trump curse
After Tuesday, it’s safe to say the Youngkin hype train has ground to a halt. It was always ridiculous and was largely the fantasy of one billionaire donor.[ii] After going all out for other Republicans and coming up short, his political future is probably over. Looking back at his win, he was just lucky and not some kind of phenom. He got to run against pandemic restrictions and didn’t have to deal with Dobbs. Had he been running on Tuesday or in 2022 he almost certainly would have lost.
The Youngkin hype stemmed in part from his being a rare exception to a problem Republicans have had since 2016. 2021 was the only good election cycle Republicans have had since then. They did poorly in 2017, 2019 and now 2023. They lost the House in 2018, the White House in 2020 and the Senate in January 2021. In 2022, they had arguably the worst midterm for the party not in the White House since 1934.
There was a case to be made from 2016-2021 that Trump was a net electoral benefit for Republicans. He enjoyed a big electoral college advantage both times he ran. Even when he lost, it was very narrow, Republicans nearly took back the House and lost the Senate by a thread.
After 2022, it should be clear that Trump is an albatross around Republicans’ necks and a disaster for them when he’s not on the ballot. They haven’t had a good federal election cycle since he won. He endorsed one toxic candidate after another last year in primaries who went on to lose the general election. As I have written about before, the appeal he has is unique to him. Nobody else can replicate what he does and everyone who has tried has flopped.
Republicans had hoped to find candidates who could be Trumpy without being Trump. The idea was that candidates could keep the non-college voters he brought in and bring back the college-educated voters he drove out. In practice, Trumpism without Trump has meant continuing to drive away the latter while losing some of the former. The midterms showed that dynamic in action as have subsequent elections such as the Wisconsin supreme court race in April.
Blue states moving right, purple states moving left
Although Tuesday was bad for Republicans, there was one bright spot and that was Long Island. Republicans won control of some local offices there, building on gains they made in 2022. That is part of a pattern that showed up last year and looks like it’s continuing. Long story short, Republicans are making gains in blue states like New York while losing ground in the midwestern states.
Last year, Republicans won five House seats in New York. In Pennsylvania, Democrats killed it, winning the races for governor, senator and all competitive House races and winning back the state house. Neither of those make much intuitive sense. New York is a blue state where Democrats should be thriving. Pennsylvania is a purple state and should be much tougher. How can that be?
This piece in the New York Times gives a solid explanation. Part of it is just education polarization. There are plenty of college-educated voters in Pennsylvania who were Republicans until recently. In New York, there are plenty of non-college educated voters who were Democrats until recently.
What I think best explains what’s going on though isn’t demographics. As the Times piece lays out, it’s the issues that are in play now. In New York, abortion is legal and because it’s a blue state there was no effort to overturn the election results there. There is no danger of right-wingers taking over the state and making it a conservative bastion. In other words, the worst things from the right are not an issue and so are not a concern when people vote.
What is a concern are bad ideas from the left. It’s in blue states and cities where problems such as crime and homelessness have received national attention, i.e., Portland and San Francisco. It’s also in some blue cities where efforts have been made by left-wingers to water down education standards in the name of “equity.” Some blue places like New York City have also seen a large influx of migrants that has sparked a backlash. Since most every elected official in blue places is a Democrat, voters have taken their anger out on them.
In purple states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, it’s the opposite situation. The crazy stuff from the left is almost non-existent. What is very real are abortion bans and election denial. The same is true in states such as Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia. In those states, abortion remains a live issue. Election denial is also still a live issue, especially in Arizona. Last year, with the exception of Georgia, virtually all Republican statewide candidates were election deniers and that may be true again next year.
That issue asymmetry is what I think best explains those disparities. Why that’s important is because of the electoral college. Trump enjoyed electoral college advantages because he was very competitive in the midwest while he lost New York in a rout. If that pattern changes, it could mean he does better in New York and other blue states, but worse in the midwest. That would be bad for him because blue states are still blue states and he can’t afford to lose ground in the midwestern states.
Don’t fret over 2024 polls
On Sunday, the New York Times put out a poll of six swing states with Trump leading Biden in five of them. I have never seen one poll cause so many people to go insane. Almost the entire Democratic chattering class (pundits, consultants, strategists, etc.) had a collective nervous breakdown. Explicit and implicit calls for Biden to not run again became very loud, most notably from David Axelrod, Obama’s campaign manager.
Tuesday’s results may have temporarily calmed down those nerves, but that will wear off within the next day or two. That’s just what that crowd does. They’re called bedwetters for a reason. Democrats could be winning or losing everything and they will panic all the same.
If anyone reading this has seen that poll or other polls showing Biden behind Trump and is freaking out about it, my advice is chill out. We’re nearly a year away from the election. Polls taken this far out have no predictive value whatsoever. In fact, it’s normal for presidents to struggle during the third year of their first term. In 2011, there were calls for Obama to not run again. His reelection prospects were uncertain and there were signs that his base might be eroding. We all know how that ended.
How can Trump still be competitive with Biden after getting indicted? You have to remember that normal people aren’t following politics right now. For most people, the only times they have heard about Trump in nearly three years were when Mar-a-Lago was raided and he was indicted. Those stories lasted for a few days and then faded into the background.
Most people aren’t thinking about Trump versus Biden right now and many probably don’t think it will happen. Since Trump is rarely in the news, the focus has all been on Biden and his struggles. The 2024 campaign won’t begin until January at the earliest. Should Trump be nominated again (all but a foregone conclusion at this point), he will be back in the news. When that happens, it will remind people of why they don’t like him.
Right now, Biden is being compared to theoretical candidates. When it’s him against Trump that will change. Biden isn’t popular, but he doesn’t have to be. He just has to be less unpopular than Trump. When Trump is back in the news, much of that will take care of itself. People will be reminded of his behavior and that he’s on trial. If he’s convicted, it will be a big problem for him. Republican primary voters don’t care about that, but everyone else does.
Even on one of Biden’s biggest problems, age, Trump isn’t well-equipped to take advantage of it. He has been having a lot of verbal slipups lately. That isn’t getting any attention now, but it will if he’s nominated. If he continues to have episodes like that it won’t make Biden’s age problem go away, but it might neutralize it, which would be a big win for Biden.
What is also not getting any attention now, but will if he’s nominated, is his rhetoric. It has always been petulant and cruel, but lately it has been violent. He recently suggested, for example, that Mark Milley, the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, should be executed. He has all but promised to use the government to go after enemies if he wins again. That will be a liability in a general election.
Safe choices don’t exist
For Democrats who don’t want Biden to run again, they need to get over it. He’s running again and he will be the nominee. At this point, any Democrat with a large microphone who feels that way should stop saying that. All that does is undermine Biden. It won’t convince him to drop out, but it will create bad press for him, which can only help Trump.[iii]
Is it risky to run Biden? Yes, but it’s risky to run anyone. Polarization is very high today, which means anyone who is the nominee of a major party for president can win. Even if their odds aren’t high, they’re much greater than zero.
Some seem to think a different Democrat not named Kamala Harris would beat Trump in a landslide. Sorry, but that’s pure fantasy. I don’t care how good an untested candidate looks in polls against Trump now, they would be brought back down to earth in a campaign. Everyone has liabilities. If another Democrat ran, they would be attacked and subject to bad press and their numbers would go down.
As we’re seeing right now with Ron DeSantis, candidates who look great on paper can quickly disintegrate when subject to scrutiny. Are there other Democrats who would be stronger than Biden? Most definitely and that’s the good news. The bad news is we have no idea who they are and they don’t either.
I understand the unease about Biden’s age, but that’s the only legitimate reason to have any concerns. I have heard plenty of commentators cite other things such as the economy. Here’s the reality of the situation: age is the only liability that’s unique to Biden. Voter dissatisfaction with the economy, Biden’s biggest problem, isn’t unique to him. If he didn’t run again he would still be president during the campaign period. If the economy was an anchor on him it would be an anchor on whichever other Democrat was running.
In any event, if another Democrat was running, age wouldn’t be a liability for them, but other things might be that aren’t liabilities for Biden. Another Democrat may be too far to the left on issues like energy and immigration, for example. Biden isn’t seen as annoying or unlikeable, but another Democrat might be.
The point of this exercise is that there’s no such thing as a risk-free candidate. Biden could lose next year, but so could any Democrat. Some of the names I see floated as alternatives would probably be even more likely to lose to Trump next year, i.e., Gavin Newsom and JB Pritzker. For those who don't want Trump to be president again, the only course of action is to get behind Biden. No amount of fantasizing about hypothetical candidates who don’t exist is going to change the fact that he’s the only alternative.
[i] One reason Republicans have struggled to gain traction with pushing for fifteen week bans is because nobody believes them. Nobody thinks that is truly where they stand. Every chance they’ve had to go further than that they’ve taken, i.e., Florida and Ohio. Youngkin himself has said he believes life begins at conception and all but admitted that pushing for a fifteen week ban was political and not based on any convictions.
[ii] Just because someone has billions of dollars doesn’t mean they’re smart. It takes an Olympic level of idiocy to think Youngkin stood a chance jumping in at the eleventh hour against Trump. No matter how elections in Virginia went, that was never on the cards, but when you’re a billionaire you can surround yourself with people who tell you you’re perfect and know everything.
[iii] It’s worth noting that virtually every well-known Democrat calling for Biden to not run again didn’t support him in the primary and may have an axe to grind. See this article from NBC as an example.