We were warned

A second Trump term will be nothing like the first

Early voting has begun and the hot takes are flying out of the oven. Republicans are voting in higher numbers than before! Gasp! Democrats are behind! Whatever shall we do? The answer is to ignore it.

We still have a week of early voting left in many states and tens of millions more will vote. More importantly, early voting numbers tell you nothing about who will win. I would be wary of any takes extrapolating current early voting numbers and predicting what things will look like in a week. I would especially not put any stock in comparisons to 2020.

2020 was a unique cycle. Remember, there was a pandemic going on. Far more people voted early because it was made much more accessible and was encouraged. It’s true that Democrats tended to vote early while Republicans were more likely to vote on election day, but that is a small sample and not set in stone.

You might have heard hot takes about how Trump has momentum on his side. The polls are tightening! The vibes are in his favor! Prediction markets think he’s a clear favorite! Harris is in deep trouble!

Pro tip, when someone in the politics business talks or writes about a candidate having momentum, what they’re really saying is, “I’m bored and can’t think of anything else to talk/write about.” Momentum isn’t a thing and never has been. It’s just a made up concept designed to fill in space when nothing big is going on.

It’s true the polls have tightened, granted there have been fewer polls this time around compared to previous cycles. Harris’ national lead has gone down from 2-3 points to 1-2 points. The horror! FYI, that is what’s called a random walk. Leading by 2-3 as opposed to 1-2 points is not statistically significant at all.

Taking the polls at face value, why has her lead shrunk? I have no idea. There is no obvious event that has happened that would materially shake up the race. We have a few days left, but so far there has been no October surprise. Odds are, if her lead has shrunk, it was always going to happen just because the race is tightening as races often do towards the end.

Like I’ve said before, the race is boring, close and stable. Absent something insane, it will remain that way until the end. When it comes to swing state polling, things have shifted ever so slightly in Trump’s favor. By ever so slightly I mean at most 1-2 points. Arguing over such a small change is splitting hairs. Those in the politics business have to put out stuff regularly so they’re going to obssess over it, but nobody else should.

Regarding prediction markets, I don’t take part in any of them and have no idea how they work. What I do know about prediction markets is they’re run by humans and can be wrong just like any other betting market. In fact, they have lately been on a losing skid. If they were always right, Clinton would have won in 2016, Trump would have won in 2020 and the 2022 midterms would have been a red wave. That’s not to say they’re wrong this time, just that they’re not infallible and I wouldn’t take what they say as gospel.

I mentioned two weeks ago that this is the time during every even numbered year when the Democratic Party chattering classes have a collective nervous breakdown. Right on cue, here is another example of it. “Top Democrats” are telling Axios, anonymously, of course, that they’re afraid Harris is doomed. As usual, their Republicans counterparts are highly confident they will win. That’s all despite the polls showing the race to be a coin flip.

For their own sake, those “top Democrats” really need to see a therapist and stop treating reporters as if that’s their job. None of them are part of the Harris campaign and I suspect many of them are former campaign strategists trying to remain relevant. It’s easy to criticize campaigns when you’re sitting on the sidelines and don’t have to make any actual decisions.

That’s a major pet peeve of mine. I don’t like it when people from previous campaigns play backseat driver and criticize current campaigns. I find it to be very unprofessional. In general, unless someone has real goods to offer, I have a very low view of people who gripe anonymously to reporters. If you really believe someone is doing something wrong or bad, you should be willing to put your name on it.

The question from Trump’s more sophisticated supporters

One big piece of news that came out over the week was John Kelly saying on record that he thinks Trump is a fascist and wants to be a dictator. Kelly served as his first Homeland Security secretary and was his longest serving chief of staff. He had more direct contact with Trump when he was president than most anyone else. It was known that he believed Trump was dangerous and unfit, but he had never said so directly.

The Kelly revelation is unlikely to move many votes. Still, it’s important because it partially answers a question Trump’s more sophisticated supporters like to ask those who warn about how dangerous putting him in charge again is. By more sophisticated, I mean the elite supporters of his such as Republican donors, pundits, consultants and some elected officials. They’re not true believing MAGA worshippers. They know Trump is bad and the 2020 election was legitimate, but are supporting him anyway. I will get to it in a bit, but there is no group of people I have a greater loathing of.

The question Trump’s more sophisticated supporters like to ask is, “Trump was president for four years and all the terrible things you said would happen didn’t happen. How do you explain that?” The answer has three parts.

The first part has to do with the economy. It’s true the economy did very well from 2017-2019. It’s funny how the more sophisticated supporters never mention 2020, but we’ll leave that for another time. The answer for why the economy was good when Trump was president during 2017-2019 is dumb luck. He inherited an economy that had been growing since 2009 and it continued to grow. That was going to happen no matter who was in charge.

A second Trump term will be very different. A central part of his campaign has been imposing tariffs and pursuing mass deportations, both of which will cause inflation to spike. His more sophisticated supporters insist that he won’t really do it. What they’re essentially arguing is that he’s a liar and full of shit and won’t go through with any of the things he says he will.

I will grant that Trump is not known for walking the walk, but I don’t find that reassuring. In a second Trump term, it won’t be people from the business world who he surrounds himself with. It will be true believers who think tariffs are awesome and don’t have any costs and that deporting millions of people will make things cheaper. That’s JD Vance’s argument for reducing housing costs. He says housing is expensive because of illegal immigrants and if we deport all of them then housing costs will go down.

His more sophisticated supporters are kidding themselves if they think they’re going to be in charge. Trump is loyal to nobody and will turn on someone the second they do anything not 100% to his liking no matter how loyal they were to him five seconds earlier. He will surround himself with sycophants who, like him, are conscience free.

No matter how much his more sophisticated supporters think he’s on their side, they have nothing on the MAGA true believers. The people running the economic show will be dyed-in-the-wool protectionists and believers in using the force of government against those they don’t like. The people in charge of immigration will be MAGA true believers like Stephen Miller. I don’t rule out the possibility that Trump doesn’t follow through with any or most of what he says he wants to do, but I’m very doubtful.

The second part has to do with his authoritarianism and why he didn’t turn the federal government into his own personal terror force. The answer is because there were adults in the room like Kelly. When Trump first came into office, there was no MAGA network to hire from so he had to rely on traditional Republican hires. People like Kelly, Jim Mattis and Mark Esper were among them.

Those hires served as checks on him. It was people like Kelly who told Trump he couldn’t do whatever he wanted. It was people like Esper who told him he couldn’t use the military against protesters. They kept him from acting on his worst ideas either by distracting him, telling him no or even saying they wouldn’t carry it out. Kelly, Mattis and Esper have all spoken out against Trump since they left their positions and have been trying to warn us about how dangerous he is.

In a second Trump term, there will be no Kelly, Mattis or Esper. Trump has made it clear he regrets hiring them and wishes he had used the military against protesters. After eight years of MAGA dominating the Republican Party, there is now a big network of MAGA true believers to hire from. In a second Trump term, that is who will be working for him. That’s a big part of the reason for the existence of Project 2025. The goal is to ensure Trump will be able to do whatever he wants and nobody will push back against him.

Like with the economy, I don’t rule out the possibility that Trump doesn’t try to become a dictator, but I’m not confident in that at all. We already know he won’t accept election results that don’t go his way. We know he tried to overturn an election and incited a mob to storm the Capitol. We know there will be no adults in the room in a second term. We know he admires dictators, routinely cites them favorably and wants to be one. We know he will pardon everyone in prison for their role in January 6 the first chance he gets. Did I mention the Supreme Court all but gave him blanket immunity to do as he pleases?

The third part has to do with foreign policy. His more sophisticated supporters love to point out that Russia didn’t invade Ukraine on his watch and that Hamas didn’t attack Israel. That, they say, is evidence that he’s strong and is good at deterrence. I can never tell if someone arguing that is dumb as a rock or has their head hopelessly up their ass. 

Hamas didn’t pick October 7 randomly. It coincided with the fiftieth anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. That’s a set date and I’m pretty sure the president doesn’t have the ability to alter time.

As for why Russia didn’t invade Ukraine from 2017-2020, why would you rob someone who is going to give you everything you want anyway? Trump sided with Putin throughout his term. He sided with Putin over US intelligence agencies and extorted Ukraine to dig up dirt on Biden. The latter is what got him impeached the first time (I know it’s hard to keep track). As with his authoritarianism, his foreign policy “success,” to the extent it can be called that, was because of adults in the room. In the case of Ukraine, Congress forced his hand and he released the aid he was holding up.

If Trump was still president, Putin 100% would have invaded Ukraine. The difference is he wouldn’t have had to worry about the US undermining him. Odds are he would have had a much easier time conquering Ukraine and made it to Kiev long ago. There is a reason Putin wants Trump to win and it’s not because they’re both fans of the Yankees.

Listening to Trump supporters insist he won’t abandon Ukraine is a sight to behold. I don’t know how they’ve talked themselves into it. My guess is they knew they were supporting someone horrible and were struggling to live with themselves. Your mileage may vary, but I think it’s a good idea to stop doing something you know is wrong. Alternatively, you can lie to yourself about it until you become a believer and it looks like that’s what they did.

As for China, Trump’s more sophisticated supporters love to tout how tough he is. Like insisting he won’t abandon Ukraine, it takes a willful denial of what is right in front of you to believe that. Trump admires dictators and Xi is arguably the most successful of them. He routinely sings his praises and has expressed disdain for Taiwan and Hong Kong. Like with NATO, he views supporting Taiwan as a protection racket and not about shared values and a strategic necessity against a hostile foreign power.

Similar to Putin, there is a reason Xi is rooting for Trump to win. If he makes a move against Taiwan, Trump is unlikely to do anything about it. If nothing else, he knows Trump can be bribed and flattered and doesn’t care about anything but himself. If he believes bribing and flattering Trump is the way to get what he wants from him, he will do it.

You might think I’m getting way ahead of myself and hopefully I am, but we have smoking gun evidence that Trump will change his position based on getting bribed. We saw that earlier this year with TikTok. Trump had supported forcing it to be sold to a US buyer or shutdown when he was president. He issued executive orders requiring that to happen.

Earlier this year, legislation was passed that would force TikTok to be sold to a US buyer or shut down. Trump opposed it. Why the sudden reversal? Because the biggest investor in ByteDance, the company that owns TikTok, is a major Republican donor. Yes, it really is that simple.

Trump’s combination of believing in nothing and being completely corrupt makes him easily bribable and Xi knows it. Taiwan is a much bigger deal than TikTok, but the CCP has much deeper pockets than any donor does. If Xi thinks bribing Trump will get him to stand back and let him do as he pleases with Taiwan or anything else, he won’t hesitate to do it. It would be malpractice on his part if he didn’t.

Think there will be pushback from the right if Trump bows down to China? Think again. Look how quickly most of the right has turned on Ukraine and embraced Putin as their hero. If you think that won’t happen with Taiwan and Xi, I have a degree from Trump University to sell you.

The worst people

The more sophisticated people supporting Trump are the lowest forms of life. They know Trump is bad, unfit and dangerous, but are still supporting him. They care more about power, money and prestige than anything else. If putting an aspiring dictator in charge with no guardrails is the price to pay, that’s fine with them.

How do we know they know Trump is bad? Don’t take my word for it, take theirs. Look at what they were saying or doing on and after January 6. What was Kevin McCarthy doing as the Capitol was being stormed? Cursing Trump out on the phone and blaming him for what was happening. What was Elise Stefanik doing? Hiding with her colleagues in fear for her life.

That was then, this is now. For a brief moment, Mitch McConnell thought removing Trump needed to be done and would be a good thing, but then he remembered how much he loves power. On the other hand, he privately calls Trump bad names so it’s all good, right?

Some donors have gone through the same journey. Plenty of them disavowed Trump after January 6 only to support him again. They want their tax cuts and deregulation above all else. Don’t believe any of the high-minded reasons you hear from them.

I don’t fault someone who is a MAGA true believer for supporting Trump. If you believe the 2020 election was stolen, what happened on January 6 was good and Trump is god’s messenger, you absolutely should vote for him. It would make no sense if you weren’t voting for him. As insane as that crowd is, they’re at least honest about it and aren’t faking anything.

I understand why MAGA true believers are all in for Trump. They don’t believe he’s bad. They think he can do no wrong and is fighting for them. What I can’t understand is someone who knows how dangerous Trump is, who has acknowledged as much, but is supporting him anyway because they want more power, money and/or prestige. People like that are the moral equivalent of the Nazgul.

I don’t understand how anyone who is clear-eyed about the legitimacy of the 2020 election and the horror of what happened on January 6 could support Trump. I understand not supporting Harris or any Democrat even though I disagree with that, but I don’t understand supporting Trump. He is hostile towards the foundations of what has made this country so successful. Name one other country that’s gone from a place nobody noticed to the biggest player on the world stage in such a short time. Don’t bother looking because no other country like that exists. A big part of why we have thrived is because we have free speech, a free press, free and fair elections and a peaceful transfer of power. I don’t understand how anyone who is not a MAGA true believer would be willing to put all that at risk.

And for what? Tax cuts? Deregulation? Those are things any Republican president will get you! I think making a Faustian bargain is a terrible idea, but if you’re going to do it go big. If you’re going to put your conscience and reputation through a woodchipper at least get things you would never get otherwise. Doing it for things you could get from any other Republican is plain pathetic. Trump’s more sophisticated supporters aren’t just morally despicable, they’re a bunch of cheap dates.

When I say Trump is the biggest domestic threat since the civil war, I’m not exaggerating or joking. He hates the things that make this country great, including our market economy that has made many of his more sophisticated supporters what they are. He worships our enemies and despises our allies. He has made it clear he will wreak havoc domestically if given another term. Dictators like Putin and Xi will be in a great place. His more sophisticated supporters, if they haven’t become MAGA true believers by then, will be shocked, just shocked that he did all the things they insisted he would never do. I wish only they would suffer for it, but we’re all going to go down with them.