What a difference a week makes

I called my second to last piece “The longest week,” but apparently it wasn’t over. Just based on the events of the last month, someone needs to write an updated version of “We Didn’t Start the Fire.” Biden announced Sunday afternoon that he wouldn’t run for reelection and immediately endorsed Kamala Harris. She has since been endorsed by everyone in any position of power or influence in Democratic Party circles. In less than 3 days, she and allied groups raised over $250 million.

The mood among Democrats changed faster than the speed of light. Almost every Democrat was despondent about the election a week ago, but now is ecstatic. A lot of that is just euphoria from the race being shaken up. Most of it’s not sustainable and will subside. Still, enthusiasm is much higher and the money raised isn’t going away.

The roll out of the Harris campaign has gone very well. She quickly racked up every endorsement that mattered, including of potential challengers. The campaign events she has held so far have been well received. It looks like she is aiming for a fairly moderate running mate, which I will get to shortly.

So far, polls taken of the race have shown it to be very close, much closer than it was when Biden was still in. I wouldn’t put much stock in it. It’s still very early and things are influx. My rule is to wait until after Labor Day before you start paying attention to polls. Had Biden not dropped out I would have reconsidered it, but since he’s not in anymore the rule is still in effect.

Harris has a lot of upside as well as downside as any non-Biden candidate would. Among the general public, her name is well-known, but that’s largely the extent of it. The big question is whether she can define herself positively before Republicans define her negatively. It’s way too early to know which of those will happen.

Personally, I feel great right now. That’s not because I think everything’s perfect, but the situation is galaxies better than it was a week ago. Biden was not able to make the case against Trump, but Harris can. With Biden out, the age issue becomes Trump’s problem and is something she can take advantage of.

Trump is now the oldest nominee ever. He’s older than Biden was in 2020. If his age can be made into an issue, it would be good not only for the contrast with Harris, but also to draw attention to JD Vance. Already, some Republicans are beginning to think Trump made a mistake in picking him.

It hasn’t even been 2 weeks and he’s managed to insult every childless woman. In recently surfaced remarks made in 2022, he advocated for banning abortion nationally and his reasoning was, “Let’s say Roe vs. Wade is overruled, Ohio bans abortion, you know, in 2022, let’s say 2024, and then every day George Soros sends a 747 to Columbus to load up disproportionately Black women to get them to go have abortions in California.” On top of that, the architect of Project 2025 has a book coming out in September and Vance wrote the foreword to it. Given how extremely online he is and how many cranks he’s associated himself with over the years, I won’t be surprised if past inflammatory remarks he’s made surface on a regular basis. I’m still skeptical that he will matter in November, but maybe this time is different.

It has been fun watching MAGA go ballistic over the switch. Some are claiming it was a coup against Biden orchestrated by Nancy Pelosi. Coming from the party of January 6, I’m not sure if they mean that as a compliment. The funniest claims are from concern trolls professing sorrow for Democratic voters being robbed of their choice in Biden. Who knew MAGA was so concerned about honoring election results? To be fair, they’re members of a cult so the idea of a leader sacrificing their own personal interest for a bigger cause is completely foreign to them.

It may be the case that the Trump campaign was centered entirely around running against Biden. Their whole plan may have been based on attacking him and there was no plan for running against anyone else. That sounds way too good to be true, but malpractice is Trump’s specialty.

VP picks

I’m very encouraged by the list of names being floated as potential VPs. The most common names I’ve seen mentioned have been Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear and Roy Cooper. Like everyone, they have their pluses and minuses, but I would be happy with any of them.

VP contenders get all kinds of hype every cycle. It’s an important thing, but not for the reasons it tends to get the most attention. Almost all political reporters focus on elections and the impact the VP will have on it. I don’t fault them for doing that, it’s what people want to hear, but it by itself it’s a terrible reason to pick someone.

As I mentioned last week, VPs have almost no electoral impact. To the extent they do, it’s in their home state. The most important reason to pick someone is to believe they could/should be president. It’s not uncommon for VPs to become president or run for it. Examples include Truman, Nixon, Johnson, Humphrey, Ford, Mondale, Bush Sr., Gore and Biden.

The question anyone picking a VP should ask themselves is, “If I’m unable to do the job for any reason, do I think he/she could take over?” For some VP picks it was obvious that the answer was yes, i.e., Biden. For other VP picks, it was obvious that the answer was no, i.e., Palin.

Beyond a VP being ready to take over as president, it’s a good idea to find someone they can get along with personally. There is a long history of presidents and vice presidents not being especially close or even antagonistic towards each other, i.e., Eisenhower and Nixon. Another thing to look for in a VP is whether he/she has any competing ambitions that might conflict with what they want to do as president. That was one of the reasons Biden was picked. Nobody thought he was going to run for president again. It didn’t work out that way, but it wasn’t unreasonable at the time.

It’s a good idea, too, to look for a VP who will be helpful in getting the president’s agenda enacted. Biden was very good at that. He had vastly more experience than Obama did and had relationships with Republicans in Congress going back decades. He frequently played the role of a dealmaker in battles with congressional Republicans.

All those should be much bigger considerations than any electoral impact. As far as the campaign goes, it’s not a good idea for someone to pick a VP who will overshadow them. It’s the presidential candidate who people will be voting for, not the VP, and they need to be the focus. A case in point for how you don’t want things to go is on the Republican side in 2008. By the time people started voting, it was almost all about the VP nominee.

Looking at the most frequently mentioned names Harris could pick, I like Cooper the best. He has plenty of experience as the governor and attorney general of North Carolina. I have no doubt he could be president if he had to. While he hasn’t been in Congress, he has dealt with a legislature dominated by Republicans since he first became governor in 2016. His signature legislative accomplishment was convincing the legislature to expand Medicaid after trying for 7 years.

He and Harris have known each other for some time. She served as California’s attorney general for 6 years while he was North Carolina’s attorney general and they got to know each other through that. I don’t think she has as close of a relationship with any other potential picks.

As far as competing ambitions go, Cooper is 67. The soonest he could run for president is 2032 when he will be 75. I’m highly skeptical that he would run given how much age concerns have been an issue. Maybe there are millions of other things going on in 2032 that make age a non-issue, but I doubt it.

Cooper is not charismatic. The more I read about him, the more he seems like Biden. I think that’s a good thing. He won’t steal the spotlight on the campaign trail or as VP if Harris wins. He’s much more likely to be a quiet but effective dealmaker.  

Electoral concerns shouldn’t be a focus, but since we’re here, let’s do it. Cooper has been elected multiple times statewide in North Carolina. Both times he was elected governor, North Carolina voted for Trump. He clearly has some crossover appeal. His presence on the ticket could make a difference in North Carolina, which is an important swing state although, unlike Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, winning it isn’t a necessity.

I like Beshear, too. He’s young by politician standards (46) and has done a good job as governor of Kentucky. Unlike Cooper, he almost certainly would be a presidential contender in the future. I have no idea how ready for prime time he is, but I haven’t seen anything to make me think he’s not. He dealt effectively with the pandemic and many natural disasters and people in Kentucky certainly seem to like for it.

For those thinking he could make Kentucky competitive, don’t get your hopes up. Kentucky is a blood red state. Democrats can sometimes win state-level elections there, but not national elections. If Beshear ran for senator, he would lose and if he was the presidential nominee, he would not win there. He would probably lose by less than other Democrats, but it would still not be close.

I think Mark Kelly’s great. Who doesn’t like an astronaut? He’s shown a great understanding of border issues and has won 2 tough races in a competitive state. Not only did he win twice, he won in cycles that were not great for Democrats. Both times, he emphasized bipartisanship and ran basically flawless campaigns.

His political experience is more limited than the other potential VP picks, but I would be shocked if he’s not ready for prime time. He’s the same age as Harris so he could be a presidential contender even if he was much older than most others running. The only obvious drawback to picking Kelly is his seat would have to be defended in a special election in 2026. That alone shouldn’t be a dealbreaker, but it’s something to consider when weighing the pros and cons.

Josh Shapiro is someone I like a lot, too. I don’t think he will be picked mainly because he’s fairly new. He was Pennsylvania’s attorney general from 2016-2022 before getting elected governor, but his tenure is still brief. He’s done a great job as governor, most notably fixing a collapsed highway in less than 2 weeks when it looked like it could have taken 6 months. His favorable rating in Pennsylvania right now is sky high for good reason.

I’m sure he’s ready for prime time and could be president. He’s 51 and so would almost certainly be a future presidential contender. When it comes to charisma, he seems to have a lot of it. For those who have never heard him talk, listen to him here. He sounds like a carbon copy of a certain former president.

Those names are the most talked about, but someone else could be picked. I like Pete Buttigieg and think he would make a great Secretary of State in a Harris Administration. He’s been good as Secretary of Transportation and is very good at going on TV, including Fox, and making the case for Democrats and against Trump.

I just don’t think he’s ripe yet. He needs more experience than what he currently has. A problem for him is it’s going to be hard to gain any more electoral experience. He’s currently registered to vote in Michigan, but he’d face a ton of competition there for any statewide office. The good news for him is he’s 42 and has plenty of time to gain more non-electoral experience before making a run.

Another dark horse contender is Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota. He’s very good and I’m sure is ready for prime time. He’s accomplished an incredible amount since 2022 with a narrow majority in the legislature. I particularly like how he’s been attacking Trump and Vance as being “weird.” It’s a message other Democrats have amplified over the last week.

I like Gretchen Whitmer, but she has said she has no interest in it and is not being vetted. Wes Moore, the governor of Maryland, is someone to keep an eye on for 2028 and beyond, but he’s too new right now to be picked. Jared Polis will probably be a presidential contender at some point, but he’s not on anyone’s VP list. His response when he was asked what he would do if he was picked was great.

Looking at the potential VP picks should make all Democrats hopeful. No matter what happens this year, they have a deep bench to run in the future. It’s a far cry from the dire situation the party was in 8 years ago.

So far, so good

It’s way too soon to conclude anything, but if the last few days are a sign of things to come, Harris looks like she’s aware of what her challenge is. She has to move towards the center as fast as she can. Over the week, there were several things she and her campaign did that make me think she’s trying to do just that.

In her first campaign event in Milwaukee, she emphasized her career as a prosecutor and how she had prosecuted people like Trump. She framed the election as a choice between freedom and chaos. There was no talk about “equity,” “social justice” or any jargon that’s popular in the left-wing advocacy world. Here’s hoping we hear a lot more of that.

On Wednesday, there were demonstrations in DC against Benjamin Netanyahu speaking to Congress. As has sometimes been the case when those demonstrations have happened, there was vandalism, antisemitic rhetoric and the burning of American flags. Harris put out a statement forcefully condemning all of those acts and calling those who did it unpatriotic.

It’s not just that she condemned what happened, but how she did it. Calling it unpatriotic is a big deal. It’s the kind of denunciation that’s a rarity in left-wing circles these days. Given that MAGA has no concept of patriotism, there’s a big opportunity for Harris to take up that mantle. Unlike nationalism, patriotism is something everyone can get behind and presents a whole new front to appeal to moderates while attacking Trump.

The third encouraging thing the Harris campaign did was put out a statement saying she is opposed to banning fracking. That’s a reversal of where she stood in 2019. While many of the crazy ideas from the left are things nobody knows or cares about, banning fracking is not one of them. It’s a very unpopular position, especially in swing states like Pennsylvania.

I’m glad she has reversed herself on it. Republicans will attack her as a leftist and fracking will be one of the main ways they do it. I don’t want her to be seen as a flip-flopper, but I would much rather her be seen as that than a left-wing extremist. Her reversal is another sign that she recognizes she erred in 2019 by going way out into left-field.

What was just as encouraging about the statement put out by the Harris campaign was that it mentioned the record energy production that has happened since 2021. That’s something Biden never discussed out of fear of angering environmental groups. I thought that was a huge mistake on his part and I really hope to see it highlighted in Harris ads soon. If environmental groups complain, she should ignore them or tell them to go do something anatomically impossible.

An upside to the enthusiasm Harris has received, I think, is that it gives her more freedom to move towards the center. Democrats aren’t just enthusiastic about beating Trump, they are also enthusiastic about their candidate. Between liking their candidate and a burning desire to beat Trump, ideological purity is taking a back seat. That means Harris can more freely do things not to the liking of left-wing groups and be given a pass for it.

To add to the encouraging news, something I thought was ironclad may be wrong. According to polling done by a Democratic-aligned group, Harris is not being blamed for inflation. The same is true for other weaknesses Biden had. None of it so far is sticking to her.

Essentially, all of Biden’s problems were unique to him in the eyes of voters. That’s awesome if it’s true. It means inflation, the biggest problem Biden had and what I believed would be a big problem for any Democrat, was solely his problem. With Biden out of the race, inflation is no longer Trump’s strength or at least not nearly as big of a strength as it would have been had he stayed in.

Harris is being treated as a blank slate. That gives her a big opportunity to define herself positively. According to the poll, her biggest weakness is immigration. She can work to ameliorate that by talking about the border bill Republicans killed at Trump’s behest. She can emphasize the actions that have been taken and that border crossings are way down.

Granted, that was just one poll so let’s not get too excited. It certainly is counterintuitive in its findings. We’ll have to wait to see if other polls find the same thing. It’s something to keep an eye on and if it’s true that’s a big game changer.