Why Democrats aren’t getting crushed and the drawbacks of bipartisanship

At the very end of my last piece, I brought up the question many political writers are asking about why Democrats aren’t crushing Republicans given how crazy they are. I wrote that it was the wrong question to ask and that the right question is the opposite. Given Biden’s unpopularity, why aren’t Democrats getting crushed everywhere? Incumbent leaders and parties around the world have been tossed out repeatedly since 2022 and many current leaders are extremely unpopular. Why is it that Democrats, the party in power in the US, aren’t suffering the same beating?

That’s a question I think is worth exploring in some detail. I’m sure there are additional explanations for it, but I would argue there are four main reasons. The first is economic. For all the hate the US economy gets, it has done better than most other economies in terms of growth and inflation. The second is polarization, which I think is much higher here than it is in other countries. The third is there are two major issues in the US that are not issues in other countries. Finally, the quality of the opposition in the US is much lower than it is in other countries.

The US has come out of the pandemic better off in terms of inflation and unemployment than most other countries, especially those that are developed. In contrast with the US, for example, the UK economy has seen meager growth and higher inflation. Since Brexit, business investment has decreased and the hope that they could enter into bilateral trade deals with other countries without the EU’s bureaucracy hasn’t worked out.

Brexit should be a cautionary tale for anyone feeling tempted by populism. The UK’s economic trajectory since it was approved in 2016 has been all downhill. In a funny plot twist, the same populist forces that pushed for it in the UK have pushed against entering into trade deals in the US. Those who voted for Brexit thought they were voting to quit their jobs and still get paid, but they got it backwards. Remember that should you feel like voting for Trump to “stick it to the man.” Like those in the UK have found out, you’ll discover that “the man” is you.

On July 4, the UK will hold their election. Absent something cataclysmic, the Tories, who are the ruling party, are going to get obliterated. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that they could come in third place behind the bat shit crazy Reform UK party. In polls, they routinely trail Labour by more than 20 points. No matter who wins here in November, it won’t be by anywhere near that much.

As much as people here hate inflation, they have jobs and wages have gone up. People are still out spending on all kinds of goods and services. Despite non-stop predictions of a recession since 2022, it hasn’t happened and it’s nowhere in sight right now. Inflation has come down substantially from its peak and jobs have continued to be added each month, which everyone and their uncle said was impossible.

In other countries like the UK, the situation is different. Wages have not gone up as much as inflation has and unemployment is higher. Housing is expensive in plenty of parts of the US and housing policy here is often bad, but we have nothing on the UK when it comes to terrible housing policy. I’m exaggerating a little, but their restrictions on building would be like if every city in the US had San Francisco’s zoning code. Combine higher inflation and unemployment with terrible housing policy and it’s no wonder people there are very unhappy.

When it comes to polarization, it’s extremely high in the US. My guess is it’s much higher here than it is elsewhere. The media ecosystem here is much more fragmented than it is in many other countries. That makes it easier for people to live in their own world and only hear what they want to hear. It doesn’t help that the US has much lower levels of trust in institutions of all sorts compared to other developed countries.

In the US, negative partisanship is a big force. That refers to people supporting their party or their “side” not because they like it but because they hate the other party or “side” even more. It’s a terrible pathology that nobody is immune to. If anyone is wondering why people are so willing to throw out long believed in ideals, that’s why. It’s easy to preach about morals and living a virtuous life, but when adhering to that would require you to not support your “side” and risk letting the other “side” win, suddenly everything is relative.

While the US’ political system is not the cause of polarization, it’s much more vulnerable to it than a parliamentary system is. Our system is candidate centered, meaning candidates get nominated by parties after being chosen in primaries. Once a candidate is nominated, a party is stuck with them. In a parliamentary system, people vote for parties and parties then choose their members of parliament. If someone is toxic, they probably won’t be chosen by their party. If someone is chosen by their party to be in parliament or to be prime minister and they implode, the party can replace them with little fanfare.

One upshot of the high amount of polarization here is both parties are guaranteed a high floor of support. The flipside is both parties have a low ceiling of support. As things stand today, landslide wins like what Labour is poised to achieve in the UK don’t happen. That won’t necessarily be true forever, but it’s true right now and it’s why there is no such thing as an unelectable presidential candidate.

Part of what makes the election outcome here so uncertain is that there are two major issues being fought over in the US that aren’t issues in other countries. Those two issues are abortion and democracy, on both of which Republicans are on the wrong side of public opinion. There is no precedent in the US for abortion being a major issue in a presidential election when the stakes are very real. Similarly, there is no precedent for a major party candidate to be running again after losing and having tried to overturn the last election.

There has never been a president or major party candidate who is openly hostile towards democracy and worships dictators. We have never had a major party candidate openly say they want to use law enforcement to exact revenge on their enemies nor have we had a major party candidate say the only legitimate election result is if they win. It’s common for political writers to dismiss concerns about democracy as being something nobody really cares about. I used to believe that, but the midterms have changed my thinking.

People do in fact care about being able to choose their leaders. The midterms saw election deniers nominated in key races in swing states and all of them lost. Yes, presidential elections are very different from midterms, but the notion that Trump’s efforts to overturn the election and January 6 won’t matter at all is BS. Many people have memory holed the horror of what happened that day, but hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of attack ads will help remind them of it. Anyone who says that won’t make any difference in November is talking out of their ass. 

Having to worry about democracy surviving is, depressingly, a uniquely American problem right now. Nobody thinks the Tories will try to overturn the election results next month and there is no chance in hell of Rishi Sunak inciting a mob to storm parliament. India just had an election where the results stunned almost everyone. Contrary to what almost everyone expected and what exit polls showed, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party wound up losing seats in parliament. Their leader, Narendra Modi, will now have to share power for the first time since becoming prime minister in 2014. Despite the surprising outcome, there have been no efforts to overturn the results. In South Africa, the ruling party lost its majority for the first time since apartheid was ended and they have not tried to overturn the results. Canada will hold elections this year and there is a 0% chance that Justin Trudeau will try to overturn it or refuse to step down when his party almost certainly gets voted out.

Abortion is the other major issue that, as best I can tell, is unique to the US. It’s a settled issue in almost all other developed countries and has been for some time. The US never had the chance to litigate it via legislation because Roe v Wade short circuited that process. With Roe gone, it’s in the hands of states and the federal government. As I wrote about recently, the stakes for abortion are very high in this election. As the midterms and subsequent elections have shown, voters care a ton about it and will vote on it.

Abortion and democracy are the reasons why the midterms weren’t a red wave. Despite Biden’s approval rating being low, Democrats kicked ass and have continued to win since. That is a point I have emphasized repeatedly in my writings. What happened in the midterms and subsequent elections was not supposed to happen! Democrats should be getting smashed everywhere given how unpopular Biden is.

That they are thriving is surreal. I feel like I’m banging my head against a wall in having to repeatedly point that out. Virtually all political writers, including many who I like, are either oblivious to that or are waiving it away like it’s meaningless. No, it doesn’t mean Biden will win, but don’t, don’t, don’t dismiss what has been going on in almost every election held since Dobbs as if it tells us nothing.

Abortion and democracy are heavily intertwined with the fourth reason why Republicans aren’t crushing Democrats. In 2022, Republicans nominated the worst possible candidates in almost every key federal and state race. Nearly all of those candidates advocated for draconian abortion bans and were election deniers. Those were almost all races Republicans should have won, but they lost because their candidates were toxic.

Republicans have nominated Trump to run against Biden. He’s a terrible candidate on so many levels, but it’s not like any other Republican would kill it. I think Ron DeSantis would have been even easier to beat. Most of the other Republicans who ran had a long history of voting and advocating for unpopular things that would have weighed them down in a general election. Pro tip, when you hear or read a political writer confidently declare that Trump is the only Republican who could lose to Biden and vice-versa, don’t ever listen to anything they say again.

In contrast with the opposition party quality in the US, it’s a very different situation in the UK. The next prime minister is all but guaranteed to be Keir Starmer. I know very little about him so I can’t say I like or don’t like him. What I can say is he’s not toxic nor is he a sociopath, a criminal or a lunatic. I also can’t imagine he’s advocating for anything wildly unpopular either, unlike Labour’s previous leader, who has since been kicked out of the party.

The downside of Biden’s bipartisan successes

Biden has been very successful at getting legislation enacted with bipartisan support. His style of being low key and not making himself the face of legislative efforts is very effective for governing. Minimizing the drama involved in legislating helps keep it out of the news, which makes it less likely to get the attention of partisan actors. The downside is it makes taking credit for things harder because very few people hear about it.

In addition, the things Biden has successfully gotten enacted are not things that are highly salient. For example, his most significant bipartisan achievement is the CHIPS Act. It marked the first step in a long effort to make the US a semiconductor powerhouse. It’s a huge deal because semiconductors are basically the 21^st century version of oil and are used in almost everything electronic.

What semiconductors are not is an issue that people follow closely. They aren’t something people are passionate about outside of a few small circles. They aren’t something people will vote on and there is no clear partisan divide on semiconductor policy.

Infrastructure is another issue that’s important, but is of low salience. After the CHIPS Act, the most important bipartisan legislation Biden signed is the infrastructure bill. It’s a big deal and will help to upgrade and update all kinds of infrastructure across the country. Like semiconductors, though, it’s not something many people have passionate feelings about nor is it something people are going to vote on. As with semiconductors, there is no clear partisan divide on infrastructure.

Some other areas where Biden has signed bipartisan legislation include fixing the postal service and aiding Ukraine. The latter did get plenty of media coverage and while there was bipartisan support for it, there was an ideological divide as most Republicans in Congress voted against it. Like semiconductors and infrastructure, foreign policy isn’t something many people are passionate about. In the case of aiding Ukraine, there was passionate support and opposition, but that came from elected officials and political writers, not from the public.

Fixing the postal service was a big accomplishment. Its finances had been a problem for years and it was common for Republicans in Congress to trash it and criticize it for being “inefficient.” Under Biden, it was fixed with little fanfare and overwhelming support in Congress. While the postal service is very popular among the public, it’s not something that is salient and doesn’t fire anyone up. Nobody is going to vote for or against someone based on how they voted on postal service legislation.

An issue being of low salience is mostly a good thing. I say that because it makes getting things done on it much easier. That’s why when I write about climate change being a low priority for most people, I don’t write that out of despair. Issues that are highly salient and that people have strong feelings about are very hard to get anything done on. That’s something we’re seeing right now with immigration. We have seen it before with healthcare. Both of those are issues people feel very strongly about and there are clear partisan divides.

To make it simple, the good news about an issue being of low salience is it’s easier to get things done on it. The bad news is it’s not likely to be something people will vote on and it’s not likely that many people will even know about it. The good news with an issue being of high salience is it’s likely to get a lot of attention and that’s the bad news because getting anything done on it is likely to be much harder.

It has been frustrating seeing how few people are aware of Biden’s many accomplishments, but it’s not surprising either. Very few people follow politics closely and it’s only when something gets sustained media coverage that it trickles down to normal people. It doesn’t help either that most legislation that is passed can’t be explained very easily.

The drawbacks to successfully enacting bipartisan legislation debunk two false ideas that political writers frequently promote. One is the notion that a president will be popular if they “show they can govern.” The implication of that is if they get a whole bunch of laws enacted, then the public will be thrilled with it and will like them for it. That idea assumes normal people are following what happens in Congress and that they understand the legislation being approved. If that was true, Biden’s approval rating would be 95%.

The other false idea that gets debunked is what I have dubbed the White Knight Theory. The idea is that the cure for the heavy polarization we have is for a leader to step up and bring people together. This white knight will bring Democrats and Republicans together, get them to put aside their differences and get to work on passing things that will make the country better. I have good news for White Knight Theory believers. Such a leader does exist. His name is Joe Biden, maybe you’ve heard of him?

What both of those false ideas try to do is come up with I like to call One Neat Trick. In those ideas’ proponents’ telling, there is one simple trick that can be done to solve a president’s (or any politician’s) problems or the country’s problems. If the president just does this One Neat Trick, their approval rating will skyrocket and they’ll get reelected in a landslide. In the case of polarization, all that’s needed to solve this multidimensional and multicausal problem is for one brave soul to rescue us.

That’s one benefit you’ll get from reading my blog. I won’t ever indulge in fantasies like that. I will seldom claim to have the answers to problems and will be the first to tell you when I have no clue, which is 99% of the time. Most political writers prefer to go the opposite route. While I won’t indulge in fantasy ideas, I am more than happy to debunk them. If you’re looking for someone to disabuse you of ideas like One Neat Trick, you’ve come to the right place.