Excellent analysis, as always. It’s refreshing to read more optimistic takes on the Dems in particular because they are at a low right now and it’s popular to pile on. Your takes acknowledge the lows but put them in perspective, convincingly by my lights.
Another great newsletter a la Slow Boring is Josh Barro’s Very Serious newsletter. He doesn’t have the output Yglesias has, but it’s well worth the $5 a month subscription. I’d say he’s a little sharper (in terms of political instincts) than Matt but just not as productive. He’s gotten back into podcasting recently, too. Just wanted to recommend!
Glad to be of service. As the name of the newsletter says I like to write cold takes and one of the coldest is Dems are doing fine. They have challenges for sure, especially in the Senate, but they're hardly insurmountable. To be honest, reading all the hot takes about how they're doomed actually makes me feel better about their prospects. I've followed elections like a chain smoker since 2004 and, like clockwork, after each presidential election the losing party's obituary gets written only for it to come roaring back in the midterms. Just remembering that little bit of history really helps you keep things in perspective.
Those two are great recommendations. I've been a reader of both of theirs for years. I wish Josh would write more often because it's always good. Matt's had more influence on my thinking and writing than anyone else.
Shor's response is below. I'm not qualified to say how good anyone's model is. Statistics aren't my specialty. But I trust his judgment and that of those he works with even if I find him a bit too confident of his prognostication skills, which are no better than anyone else's.
I'm not going to lie, I instinctively don't trust the authors of that article. Grumbach's a smart guy, but he's a leftist and I don't have a lot of nice things to say about that crowd. Maybe I'm letting it blind me here, but leftists have long argued that there are all these non-voters out there who are far-left and just need to be mobilized by Democrats going socialist. Bernie Sanders tested that theory twice and it didn't even work with Democratic primary voters.
Excellent analysis, as always. It’s refreshing to read more optimistic takes on the Dems in particular because they are at a low right now and it’s popular to pile on. Your takes acknowledge the lows but put them in perspective, convincingly by my lights.
Another great newsletter a la Slow Boring is Josh Barro’s Very Serious newsletter. He doesn’t have the output Yglesias has, but it’s well worth the $5 a month subscription. I’d say he’s a little sharper (in terms of political instincts) than Matt but just not as productive. He’s gotten back into podcasting recently, too. Just wanted to recommend!
Glad to be of service. As the name of the newsletter says I like to write cold takes and one of the coldest is Dems are doing fine. They have challenges for sure, especially in the Senate, but they're hardly insurmountable. To be honest, reading all the hot takes about how they're doomed actually makes me feel better about their prospects. I've followed elections like a chain smoker since 2004 and, like clockwork, after each presidential election the losing party's obituary gets written only for it to come roaring back in the midterms. Just remembering that little bit of history really helps you keep things in perspective.
Those two are great recommendations. I've been a reader of both of theirs for years. I wish Josh would write more often because it's always good. Matt's had more influence on my thinking and writing than anyone else.
“If non-voters voted, Trump would have won by a bigger margin”
We sure about that?
https://open.substack.com/pub/data4democracy/p/did-non-voters-really-flip-republican?r=7hhis&utm_medium=ios
David Shor thinks so and I trust his judgment on those kinds of things.
But the article debunks Shor’s findings, so…?
Shor's response is below. I'm not qualified to say how good anyone's model is. Statistics aren't my specialty. But I trust his judgment and that of those he works with even if I find him a bit too confident of his prognostication skills, which are no better than anyone else's.
https://x.com/davidshor/status/1923480077246808477
I'm not going to lie, I instinctively don't trust the authors of that article. Grumbach's a smart guy, but he's a leftist and I don't have a lot of nice things to say about that crowd. Maybe I'm letting it blind me here, but leftists have long argued that there are all these non-voters out there who are far-left and just need to be mobilized by Democrats going socialist. Bernie Sanders tested that theory twice and it didn't even work with Democratic primary voters.
I agree that there isn’t some progressive left majority, but I’m equally skeptical that everyone’s turned alt right all the sudden.