Goodbye '23, though I never knew you at all
Another year has come and gone. Like almost every year, plenty of things happened, good, bad and ugly. I wouldn’t say there was one single biggest story, but many big stories that are notable and will continue to be important this year.
The two biggest economic stories were the resilience of the US economy and the stalling of the Chinese economy. I just wrote in detail about the former so feel free to check it out if you haven’t already. The latter may well be the biggest economic story not just for last year, but for years to come. After decades of enjoying robust growth, China’s economy has finally begun to show signs of slowing down.
Virtually all the news regarding China’s economy that has come out over the last few months has been bad. Many explanations have been given for why it has happened with most centering around their economy being too focused on investment and not enough on consumption. Making matters worse is that Xi Jinping seems wedded to his ways and unwilling to adjust in the face of a slowdown.
Why China’s economic slowdown is a huge deal should be obvious. China is the world’s second largest economy and a big source of customers for all kinds of businesses. Many types of goods are also made there. How much the economy there is slowing down isn’t known for sure because the government won’t publish data that is unflattering. It is clear though that there are big problems such as sky high unemployment among young people.
How much and for how long China’s economy will continue to struggle is unknown. The same is true for the kinds of economic effects a slowdown there will have on the world economy. From a geopolitical standpoint, China having economic problems could be good or bad. On the one hand, if the Chinese government has to worry about domestic issues it may distract from their global ambitions and reduce their influence abroad. On the other hand, a Chinese government that fears for their survival may be more inclined to do something rash to distract from the economy, i.e., start a war.
That is all I’m going to say on that matter because it’s entirely speculative and I’m certainly no authority on it. With respect to Russia and Ukraine, this year has been mostly disappointing for the latter. Ukraine’s offensive to try to take back territory hasn’t worked out. As of now, things are at a stalemate, but Russia could gain the upper hand soon.
That is why US aid to Ukraine needs to be approved ASAP. Ukraine may be able to tough it out for a few more months, but eventually is going to have a hard time keeping Russia at bay. There are already plenty of calls for a diplomatic agreement to be brokered. I think there will be some kind of agreement eventually absent Russia being completely expelled from Ukraine, but it’s premature to be calling for it now.
Ukraine can keep persisting as long as US and European aid is provided. If Congress does the right thing and gives Ukraine the aid Biden has been requesting, they can continue to fight. As far as I can tell, most everyone thinks Ukraine won’t be able to completely expel Russia even with aid. That may be right, but there is a big difference between pursuing a “peace” deal when Ukraine has the upper hand versus Russia having the upper hand.
For those who think Ukraine should come to the table now, I have two questions. What makes you think Putin is interested in that? Assuming Putin came to the table, what makes you think he’d abide by anything he agreed to? Right now, things have been going better for Russia and Putin is banking on Trump winning in November.
There is no obvious reason why he would negotiate anything. He doesn’t want part of Ukraine, he wants all of it. In his eyes, Ukraine isn’t a real country. That doesn’t mean he never will negotiate or back down, but it’s important to remember what drives him. He wants to recreate the USSR.
True, if Trump wins Ukraine is screwed along with NATO and most everything good in the world. In case anyone reading this needed one more reason to not want Trump back in office, there you go. Still, the election is an eternity away and in the interim Congress is perfectly capable of approving aid to Ukraine. If aid is not provided and Ukraine flounders, that will be a choice, not an inevitability.
Obviously, there is no way I could talk about things happening abroad and not mention the events of October 7 and afterwards. I have written twice on that subject. I haven’t changed my mind on any of it yet.
On the most basic level, the events going on in Israel and Gaza right now are one more illustration of how terrible and dangerous identity politics is. When people view themselves first and foremost by their race, ethnicity, religion or some other sectarian trait, it’s not good at all. It’s also, sadly, very normal. One civilization after another has been centered around some form of identity politics.
The experiment we’ve been trying to run in the US is highly unusual. Having lots of different groups living together side-by-side and not going to war with each other isn’t normal at all. Yes, we haven’t always adhered to that, just look at slavery, Jim Crow and the treatment of Native Americans. Still, what we’ve been trying to do is very good and rather than rip it apart because we aren’t perfect we should be doing everything possible to move in that direction.
The US is not perfect, never has been and probably never will be. But the ideas the US was founded on are fundamentally good. Having a place where one’s race, ethnicity or religion doesn’t determine their entire life is very rare. While we argue over identity politics in the US, fortunately, we have nothing on other parts of the world. As bad as wokeness and MAGA are, they aren’t in the same galaxy as Hamas, ISIS or the Taliban. I really don’t want that to change.
On the home front
Moving on to the domestic front, this year has been comparatively uneventful. In Congress, other than passing essential bills to avoid a shutdown and defaulting on our debt payments, nothing of any significance was passed. That really isn’t surprising given that divided government tends to do a lot less and the Republican majority in the House is incapable of passing much of anything.
The House wasn’t entirely without drama. Kevin McCarthy made history as the first Speaker of the House to be deposed. He was in that position for just nine months and only got voted in after fourteen rounds of failed votes. It couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.
George Santos (if that’s really his name) became only the sixth member of the House to be expelled. In his case, you just have to laugh. You can’t say he never accomplished anything. Who else has won ten super bowls, walked on the moon, invented cars and is the front man for The Rolling Stones?
Election wise, not much happened as it was an odd-numbered year. In the few elections that took place, the trend of Democrats defying political gravity continued. Despite Biden’s approval rating being underwater, Democrats continued winning elections, including in Wisconsin, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Virginia.
Abortion has continued to be a huge issue. Ohio became the latest state to add protections for abortion rights in their constitution. Democrats have a big edge on it even in red states and used it to their advantage with great success.
As for the presidential primary, a big question has been answered. A year ago, Trump was badly wounded. He had helped cost Republicans many critical races and arguably kept them from winning the Senate and multiple state-level races. Ron DeSantis was one of the very few things Republicans had to celebrate in the midterms. On paper, he looked like he posed a big threat to Trump for the nomination.
The question was whether he could do that in practice and the answer is a resounding no. From the moment he announced his run, it has been all downhill. He looks like this cycle’s version of Elizabeth Warren.
Like Warren, he has run a campaign geared towards the most online-addicted wing of his party. Like Warren, he speaks in their language, i.e., “woke mind virus,” “woke mob,” ESG, CRT. Like Warren, who went way out into left field, he went way out into right field. He signed a ban on abortion after six weeks, courted anti-vaxxers and jumped into every last obscure culture war fight. That’s not even counting his far-right voting record in Congress. Comparing actual performance versus initial expectations, Warren was the biggest flop of the 2020 primary. That honor goes to DeSantis for the 2024 primary.
It certainly didn’t help DeSantis that he has no charm, charisma, sense of humor or social skills. The more people saw him, the less they liked him. Trump is a culture warrior, but he tends to focus on things people are likely to understand such as immigration and crime. He also speaks in words that normal people use. DeSantis is a true believing, online-addicted culture warrior and speaks in jargon that nobody who isn’t extremely online understands. Voters like candidates who speak their language, not weirdos.
There are many things to take away from his failed bid, but I think one of the biggest is how little anyone cares about culture war fights. That’s one reason why, as much as I dislike wokeness, I try not to write about it anymore. It has peaked and is on its way out. Not even Republican primary voters care about it.
With DeSantis’ campaign effectively on life support, all eyes have turned to Nikki Haley. Lately, she has been getting attention for having botched an easy layup question about slavery. That is why polls showing her doing better against Biden than Trump or DeSantis are junk. Until last week, she had never been attacked or subject to any bad press. If her reaction to the criticism she has gotten for her answer to the slavery question is any indication, she’s not ready for prime time.
It doesn’t matter because Trump will be the Republican nominee. If he cleans up in Iowa and New Hampshire, the general election could begin as early as this month. It will be the first time since 1956 that a presidential election featured a rematch of the last election. Most people are probably in denial, disbelief or completely unaware that the election will be Trump and Biden again, but that is what is going to happen.
Very early 2024 thoughts
I don’t like being called a contrarian, but I’m a believer in two things that are definitely not mainstream among those who write and talk about politics. The first is I’m glad Biden is running again. He is the president and presidents run for reelection unless they fall apart, i.e., Truman and LBJ.
It was always clear that Biden was going to run again. He had a very successful first two years and got a ton of legislation enacted with the narrowest majorities. He has also done a very good job on foreign policy. After how well Democrats did in the midterms, any talk of him not running again should have ended right then and there.
Many political writers and commentators seem to think Biden is the only Democrat who can lose to Trump and that any other Democrat not named Kamala Harris would win easily. As I have written about before, that is pure fantasy. I don’t care how good an untested Democrat looks against Trump in polls. If another Democrat ran they would be attacked and their numbers would go down. For a normal person who doesn’t follow politics to not know that is understandable, but someone who gets paid to write and talk about politics should be aware of that.[i]
Unlike almost everyone who writes and talks about politics, I’m not concerned at all about polls showing Biden losing to Trump. I say that not because I don’t believe them, but because I don’t care. The election is an eternity away and the campaign hasn’t even begun. Very few people outside of political junkies are paying attention to politics now.
I think David Brooks put it best when he said people are using polls to vent, not vote. A big part of why I don’t care about Biden’s poll numbers is because they’ve been bad for over two years, but Democrats are thriving. Prior to the midterms, a president’s approval rating probably told you 90% of what you needed to know about their party’s fortunes. Now, it probably only tells you 10%.
As I have emphasized before, the laws of political physics are on vacation. Maybe they come back this year, but maybe not. Most political writers and commentators, including plenty who I read and like, seem either unaware of the disconnect between Biden’s poll numbers and how Democrats have been doing or they just waive it away like it’s nothing. I don’t expect normal people who don’t follow politics to know about that disconnect, but I do expect political writers and commentators to be aware of the significance of it.
It was not uncommon leading up to the midterms to find people saying abortion and concerns about democracy didn’t matter. Inflation plus the usual midterm dynamics would prevail. I thought that was likely, too, but it was dead wrong. Maybe it’s different in a presidential election, but we don’t know that. What we do know is (a) abortion is a highly salient issue that is benefitting Democrats and (b) people care about democracy and will punish candidates who are seen as hostile towards it.
To be clear, when I say I don’t care about Biden’s numbers, I’m not saying Trump can’t win. Anyone who is the nominee of a major party for president can win. I think Biden should take Trump seriously and I have no doubt he will. Trump should be taken seriously not just because he has a non-zero chance of winning, but also because the consequences of him winning are way too dire to not do everything possible to prevent.
The good news is Trump has a lifetime supply of liabilities, old and new, which I have discussed before. He is not a popular figure and never has been. Right now, he is seldom in the news and so all the focus has been on Biden and his woes. When he is nominated that will change and people will be reminded of all the things they don’t like about him.
As is always the case in presidential elections, the state of the economy will be a big issue. For the longest time, the news surrounding it was bad, but that may be starting to change. That is a good thing for many reasons and the political ramifications can’t be overstated.
During Trump’s term, the economy was good and people were very happy with it. It was the only thing preventing a total collapse in his approval rating. In polls now, he enjoys an advantage on that issue over Biden. But if things turn around and people start to see the economy positively that could change. If it does, then Trump will lose his biggest advantage while still having all his liabilities.
That is not a prediction, but it is something people should spend more time thinking about. Biden could not just win, he could win big. If it’s even in the same league as Morning in America, he will be in a great place. Imagine an incumbent running for reelection with the economy doing well and an opponent who is loathsome, revolting, obsessed with the last election and a convicted felon. Impossible, you say? Sure, the same way electing a black president was impossible.
[i] I don’t get paid to write or talk about politics, but I should. Sigh