Elon Musk's last dance

Trump made him cry, made him breakdown, shattered his illusions of love

Before we get into the subject of this post, I want to highlight an event that happened over the week and how those who are interested can help out now in supporting good candidates for office next year. On Wednesday, a group of centrist Democrats met in DC at a gathering called WelcomeFest. It included many writers who I read and follow, along with some data analysts and elected officials. I wish I had been there. I would have been a little kid in a candy store.

The goal of the gathering was to bring centrist Democrats together to begin pushing back against the party’s left-wing. As any regular reader of this newsletter knows, my sympathies are with them 100%. Having communicated with one of the event’s organizers on X, he referred me to the link here for how you can donate to help them. I gave some money and would recommend others do the same. It is split five ways between three House incumbents, one House challenger and the WelcomePAC organization itself.

As the midterms get closer, I will make more recommendations about where to give money should anyone be so inclined. The best thing you can do is give money to campaigns so they can run ads. Other volunteer activities like door knocking and phone banking are nice and fun, but giving money matters way more.

Even if you live under the world’s tiniest rock, there is no way you didn’t hear about the big breakup that happened over the week. There have been plenty of high profile splits before, but I don’t think you can beat the president and the richest man in the world publicly duking it out. There’s not enough popcorn in the world for that. The breakup hasn’t just been dramatic and highly entertaining. It was the easiest thing in the world to predict.

The moment Trump and Musk became BFFs it was clear that bromance was not going to last. The world isn’t big enough for both of them. It wasn’t known what would cause them to split, but it wasn’t hard to see it happening.

Just knowing a little about Trump and his history would have told you it was going to happen. He has no true friends. At most, he has acquaintances. Otherwise, he has people opportunistically sucking up to him and people he’s using for his own ends. Having true friends would require him to think about things other than himself, which is not in his DNA. The idea that Musk was going to be the one to breakthrough to him was beyond laughable.

From what has been reported, their breakup has been brewing for some time. Musk has rubbed plenty of people in Trump’s administration the wrong way and has created a lot of resentment among them. His participation in cabinet meetings and telling cabinet secretaries how to do their jobs and getting pushback was reported on back in March. From the beginning, he had plenty of enemies in the MAGA world and in Trump’s orbit.

What had been building up for months blew up during the last week. Apparently, the catalyst of it was Trump withdrawing his nominee to run NASA, who is close to Musk. There were other things that led to the breakup becoming public, but that was the big one. Musk was very mad about it and on Tuesday lashed out at the tax bill being pushed through Congress, calling it a “disgusting abomination” (he’s not wrong).

Thursday was when shit really hit the fan. Both accused each other of all kinds of bad things and made all kinds of threats. Since then, Musk has somewhat backed down, demonstrating which of the two has the cards. If they get back together again, it will be because Musk folded, not Trump. It’s no 50-50 relationship.

I would love to believe Musk’s opposition to the tax bill will kill it, but that’s not going to happen. He’s promised to go after anyone who votes for it, but I wouldn’t take that seriously at all. A Trump endorsement in a primary is worth way more than Musk’s money. Trump is the one in control of the Republican Party. Musk, like everyone else, is just a helpless bystander.

In light of their breakup, the schadenfreude among Democrats is off the charts. I know I’m feeling it. A few Democrats in Congress think he should be reached out to. I wrote earlier this year that I think Democrats should make an effort to reach out to him. I could see that happening eventually, but right now that’s not going to happen and it shouldn’t.

I made myself a pariah and all I got was this lousy t-shirt

When the history books are written, Musk’s biggest legacy from his brief time as a “special government employee” will be recklessly firing badly needed federal employees and sentencing people in Africa to death. Maybe there is a redemption arc in his story, but it’s a long way off. In less than a year, he’s gone from being widely admired to widely despised. He deserves every bit of it.

Having thrown his lot in with Trump, he alienated his customer base. Who do you think buys Teslas? It’s largely educated liberals in blue states, particularly California. He declared war on them and now Tesla’s sales are way down. What did he think would happen?

It’s not just in the US where he’s become aligned with right-wingers. He endorsed AfD in Germany and has been supportive of Reform in the UK. Unsurprisingly, the backlash against him has been global and Tesla is reeling from it. Now, having alienated the center and left, he’s alienating the right by breaking up with Trump. He’s soon going to find himself politically isolated and homeless with few friends.

I still think the world of him as an entrepreneur, but I can’t look past what he’s become over the last few years, especially since he went all in with Trump. He has changed quite a bit since 2020. He was supposed to be a Jedi, but he’s joined the Sith.¹

As smart as he is about technology of all sorts, he has no intellectual curiosity. With his wealth, he has access to all the information in the world. If he wanted to learn about any subject, he could call up or meet with the best authorities on it at any time. That he chooses not to do that and relies on the most batshit crazy accounts on X for his information is a big indictment of him.

There are many reasons for why the DOGE has failed and that’s one of them. When your information diet consists of nothing but conspiracy theories and you try to act on it you’re going to do a faceplant. Contrary to what he genuinely thought, there are not trillions of dollars being spent on “waste, fraud and abuse.” Millions of dead people are not receiving Social Security benefits. The federal government spends a ton of money for easily explainable reasons. Anyone who knows anything about the federal budget could have told him that.

The biggest expenses the federal government incurs are defense, interest on the debt, Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security. If you hear someone talking about how bad the federal deficit is and they say nothing about those expenses, they’re a clown and shouldn’t be listened to. You should have the same impression of someone claiming to have a magic solution to the federal deficit that doesn’t involve significantly cutting spending and impacting services.

FYI, the reason those items are expensive has nothing to do with fraud. Social Security costs money because its beneficiaries are old and there are a lot of them. Medicaid and Medicare are part of a broader healthcare system that is very expensive and the latter only serves those 65 and older who tend to be sicker than other age groups. Interest on the debt is an expense any time the government borrows money. To be fair, there is plenty of waste in the defense budget, but it’s not being paid out because of fraud or abuse. It’s being paid out because Congress lawfully appropriated it to be spent.

In addition to Musk’s cluelessness about the federal government, there is his behavior on X, which by itself should disqualify him from serving in any capacity. He has long been an active user of it, but since he acquired it his use of it has gone way up. His behavior on it since then has been despicable. He’s promoted every conspiracy theory under the sun, hurled first grade insults at almost everyone and acted like a deranged sociopath. The man is very unwell and needs serious psychiatric help.

Maybe one source of his behavior is his extensive drug use, which has been well-documented. At this point, his diet consists of mostly ketamine. He taunted Republican lawmakers on Thursday by saying he’ll be around for another 40+ years. He really should quit the drugs if he plans on doing that.

The education of the tech bros

With Musk being on the outs, the influence of the tech bros² is going to decline if not vanish altogether. That they would fail in their battle against MAGA true believers, like the Trump-Musk breakup, was easily predictable. People like Stephen Miller have been by Trump’s side from the beginning. The tech bros have only been with him since last summer. One of those groups understands Trump and knows him well. The other doesn’t have a clue.

Before the election, I wrote about how Trump’s more sophisticated supporters, which included his newfound friends in Silicon Valley, were deluding themselves. They thought they were going to be running things in his second administration. Trump was going to let them do as they pleased. He was going to listen to them on the issues they cared about and defer to their wishes. They could not have gotten it more wrong.

MAGA true believers like Miller are the ones in control, not Musk. The agenda of the tech bros runs counter to what much of Trump’s base wants. For example, tech companies rely heavily on H-1B visas for their employees. Some were apparently shocked that MAGA true believers opposed that. Who could possibly have known that a movement centered around hatred of immigration wouldn’t make an exception for educated Indians?

It didn’t help that they had no understanding of who makes up Trump’s coalition. Tech bros provide some money, but they’re a tiny number of people. MAGA true believers are way more numerous. Trump’s fan base couldn’t care any less about AI, space exploration or any other tech bro passion.

They also misunderstood Trump himself. Last summer, Trump went on a tech bro podcast where he said he favored high-skilled immigration. The hosts and other Trump supporters in Silicon Valley jumped for joy. Since then, Trump has backtracked on it and the policies he’s pursued since January are the opposite of it. Anyone who knows anything about Trump’s (lack of) policy commitments could have told them that would happen.

Other than hating trade, Trump has basically no sincere beliefs. Because he believes in almost nothing, he will tell whoever is in front of him whatever they want to hear, particularly if he wants their support. You could talk to him about any subject there is and he would agree with you on everything. As soon as you leave, someone else could come in with the exact opposite view on that subject and he would agree with them on everything. His telling the tech bros he likes high-skilled immigration wasn’t a sincere agreement with them. It was just Trump being Trump.

Since he first showed up in 2015, many previously reputable people have thrown their lot in with him. I can count on no hands the number of them who have come out looking better for it. Like so many others who came before them, Musk and the tech bros thought they would be different. They were going to be the ones to control the human wrecking ball that is Trump.

Like other formerly reputable people who sold out to Trump, the tech bros made a deal with the devil and now the bill is due. They’re not going to get what they want on immigration, trade or anything major. The biggest gain they’ve made, crypto being treated more favorably, is coming at the price of its reputation potentially being ruined by becoming associated with Trump and his grift empire. On top of that, the federal deficit, a big concern in Silicon Valley, is going to explode if the tax bill is enacted.

If you want to have a chance at power by sucking up to Trump, you can do it. You may get what you want, but it will come at a huge price. It will cost you your credibility, integrity and reputation and probably your sanity, too. I noticed many people from Silicon Valley who threw their lot in with Trump quickly devolved into conspiracy theorists right after they endorsed him. They have to live with themselves somehow.

If you throw your lot in with Trump it won’t just be you that suffers. Whatever cause you’re pushing for will be tainted by being associated with him. Just look at the anti-abortion crowd. They got what they wanted and Roe was reversed. In return, they sacrificed their credibility on all things moral, public opinion swung heavily towards the pro-choice position and the number of abortions increased.

The best leadership quality that Musk decidedly lacks

Like Icarus, Musk flew too close to the sun and is now crashing down to earth. He really believed he was a god and had no limits. He’s been so successful and has become so powerful over the years that he thinks of himself as superhuman. Wherever he goes, everyone important is eager to meet with him. Through Starlink, he’s been conducting foreign policy single-handedly.

I don’t know what the future holds, but if he is to redeem himself, getting smacked down is going to be essential to it. He’s just a mortal like all of us and he needs to be reminded of that. While he has way more influence and money than just about everyone, he’s not the only thing standing between civilization and collapse. The sooner that occurs to him, the better.

Humility isn’t something Musk is known for, but that needs to change for his sake and ours. We need to have his talents, but they need to be channeled to things like space exploration. I think the idea of colonizing Mars is awesome and if there is anyone on earth who can do it, he’s the one. He just has to know his limits and what he’s good at.

I’m no authority on how to be a successful leader, but nobody really is. There is no universal template for it. Leadership in one area is completely different from leadership in another. There are, however, a few traits that I think could be applicable almost everywhere.

The most important in my view is humility. Everyone in a position of authority should recognize that they’re not infallible. They can make mistakes and they don’t have all the answers. Leading any organization probably requires that, but it’s especially necessary if the organization you’re leading is a government or large business.

Musk is the biggest face of it, but there are many in the business world who are way too high on their own supply. The tech bros are just the latest example of it. The lack of humility from people like that is a big part of what causes them to stray from what they know and make asses of themselves. Venture capitalists can be great at investing in startups and can be very knowledgeable about all kinds of things related to technology. That’s great and I’m glad people like that exist.

Where they err is in forgetting how unique and specific that is. Silicon Valley is its own small world. Its effect on the economy is much bigger than its size, but it’s a very small place that can be full of groupthink. Unleashing people like that throughout the federal government without any relevant experience or knowledge has proven to be a joke at best and otherwise has done a whole lot of damage.

The federal government is not like a startup, but the tech bros were too full of themselves to recognize that. I don’t think most of those who took part in the DOGE were malicious, but they knew nothing about what they were doing and how consequential it would be. If a startup fails, few notice and life goes on. If people in charge of approving new drugs are fired, it’s a big problem.

Everyone has to know their limits no matter what their area of expertise is. Nobody should ever believe that because they succeeded at one thing they will succeed at everything. Musk’s foray into politics should serve as a cautionary tale to anyone else in the business world who thinks they know how to run a government.

Part of being humble is understanding that you’re not special. You may be smart and talented and you may have all kinds of skills. That’s great, but you’re not the only one on earth who’s like that. No matter how good you are, you’re not irreplaceable. Pro tip, if you ever find yourself working for someone who thinks that about themself, quit immediately.

According to legend, Marcus Aurelius always made sure there was someone with him when he was in the presence of adoring crowds who would whisper in his ear, “You’re only a man.” That’s almost certainly made up, but the point is valid. No matter how much success someone has and no matter how popular they are, we’re all human. You can believe in a higher power, but don’t ever think you’re a higher power.

A corollary to humility is being careful about who you surround yourself with. If you’re someone with a lot of money, you’re inevitably going to attract sycophants and flatterers. People are going to want to suck up to you and tell you how perfect you are. In the case of Musk, he tends to foster a culture of fear and retribution around him and so nobody will ever tell him he’s making a mistake. That’s a terrible approach and a great way to get yourself into trouble.

In the public sector, it’s even more important to surround yourself with people who are honest. That’s hard to do in practice because nobody wants to be told things are bad. Still, it has to be done. If things are bad, reality will catch up to you. No matter how much you dig your head in the sand, you won’t escape it.

The public sector has a monopoly on the use of force, which is why it’s really important to not have people in positions of authority living in a bubble. If a war is going badly, whoever is in charge needs to know (cc Putin). If invading another country is a bad idea, whoever is in charge needs to be told that.

The kind of person who should be in charge

No matter what form of government you have, someone has to be in a position of authority. In my view, the best kind of people to be in those positions are those who would rather be doing something else. I think the last kind of people who should be in powerful positions are those who crave it.

In practice, it can be hard to do that. If you’re talking about an elected position, someone has to run for it. Running for any kind of office is tough and is a big commitment. If you manage to get elected president twice, that’s almost a decade of your life you’re giving up. You have to want it to be willing to put yourself through all that.

There are, however, many powerful positions that are not elected and I think those should be filled by people who don’t especially want to do it. I don’t mean they should be filled by someone who hates the job and doesn’t know what they’re doing. I mean they should go to someone who is experienced and qualified, but has plenty of other options and is not gung-ho about doing it.

That’s how I feel about picking cabinet secretaries. It’s best to go with someone who takes the job somewhat reluctantly. If someone is lobbying for a position, let alone campaigning for it publicly, that’s a red flag. I feel the same way about picking a VP. If someone is very open about how much they want to be picked, they shouldn’t be picked.

Another criterion for who should be in a position of authority is how in it for themselves they are. We all have egos, but someone who has to be talked into taking a job is much less likely to let their ego get in the way of things. I find there is a very strong correlation between ego and being attention seeking. Someone who keeps their head down and avoids the cameras is a lot more preferable than the opposite.

I mentioned humility as an important virtue and it’s true here. Someone who is humble is more likely to be high-minded and service-oriented rather than in it for themselves. Someone who thinks they should be in charge of everything is unlikely to be either of those.

Looking at Musk, he easily fails those criteria. He makes it no secret that he thinks he should be in charge of everything. At times, he was acting like the de facto president. When it comes to being in the limelight, only Trump can match him in his desire for attention. There are probably no more than half a dozen people alive today who think more highly of themselves than he does.

Considering all that, Musk is one of the last people who should be anywhere near a position of power in the government. He has said before that he believes he’s saving western civilization. Anyone with that high of an opinion of themself has no business running a lemonade stand. If western civilization really was at stake (it’s not by a long shot), that would justify taking some very drastic actions.

If someone really sees themselves as a savior, they’re not going to listen to anyone who tells them otherwise. Whatever course of action they’re taking they will pursue to the gates of hell no matter what. In Musk’s case, he believes the big threat to western civilization comes from wokeness. China, Russia and all other foreign adversaries are no big deal. The real fight is within.

Trump also believes the biggest enemies are domestic, hence his war on universities and his efforts to get rid of anyone in the federal government he doesn’t like. He and Musk have no problem with dictators. In fact, they like many of them. In their minds, they’re fighting the bad guys, but in reality they’re aiding and abetting China and Russia while wrecking everything that’s made this country what it is.

1. If you prefer a comic book analogy, he was supposed to be Tony Stark, but he’s turned out to be Thanos.

2. The phrase tech bros doesn’t refer to just anyone in the technology sector. It specifically refers to those who are MAGA. Others use the less pejorative phrase “tech right.”